NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

NFL Football

2013-01-20 - San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 20 January 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
8pm (British Time)

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Preview

The NFC Championship Game is being hosted by the Atlanta Falcons (14-3), but they remain a team that doesn't have the faith of the public behind them. The Falcons very easily could have blown their game with the Seattle Seahawks last weekend and must be pretty happy with the fact that Pete Carroll tried to 'ice' Matt Bryant who actually missed the first of his winning Field Goal attempts.

It has released a huge monkey off the back of this regime as Mike Smith and Matt Ryan picked up their first Play Off wins, but that has landed them an extremely tough assignment of dealing with the San Francisco 49ers (12-4).

San Francisco were easily the biggest story of the Divisional Round of the Play Offs as they battered the Green Bay Packers, mainly thanks to Colin Kaepernick. The Quarter Back has become one of the leading stars in the NFL overnight thanks to that performance against the Packers when he accounted for 441 yards, but it shouldn't be as 'easy' on the road for the young signal caller.

Kaepernick and the San Francisco Offense will have seen the blueprint set out by Seattle and Russell Wilson last week and I think they are going find considerable success on the ground in this one. While the Falcons limited Marshawn Lynch, even forcing a couple of fumbles, they couldn't get to grips with Wilson whose scrambling enabled the chains to be moved and plays to be extended.

I expect San Francisco will hope for Frank Gore to get more success, but the Falcons can't sell out to stop him on the ground as Kaepernick has some big weapons in the passing game as well as his own set of wheels that can produce huge yardage on the ground. Seattle showed up the Secondary problems that Atlanta have had so Michael Crabtree, despite allegations of sexual assault hanging over his head, and especially Vernon Davis will have holes to exploit.

It was the Tight End Zach Miller that hammered Atlanta last week so I am expecting Davis and Kaepernick to get on the same page and get things going through the air too.

With John Abrahams banged up, the Atlanta pass rush just hasn't been that effective and the ability to scramble of the Quarter Back should protect the Offensive Line from giving away too many yardage through sacks in this one.

On the other side of the ball, we did see Michael Turner turn back the clock by running the ball effectively last week, but that is going to be a lot more difficult against the San Francisco Defense which is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry on the season. Atlanta have struggled to run the ball all season anyway, and I don't think anyone will be surprised to hear that the pressure will once again be on Matt Ryan.

The big battle is going to be in the trenches and which of the two Lines will be able to impose themselves on the other. San Francisco get a lot of pressure in the backfield, but Atlanta have protected Ryan very well for most of the season and just don't give up a lot of sacks. That could be the key to the whole game as Ryan doesn't have the mobility to extend plays like some of the Quarter Backs in the NFL, but he can be very effective if given the time to attack the Secondary.

San Francisco aren't exactly easy to attack through the air, but Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez are top receivers that can make the plays required with their hands if Ryan can get them the ball. Hence why the biggest battle will be the one in the trenches, especially if Atlanta are to make this a real game.

Head to Head

They last met a couple of seasons ago when the Atlanta Falcons beat San Francisco by a couple of points here in the Georgia Dome, although failing to cover the spread.

Atlanta have won 4 in a row in the series going back to 2001.

Prediction

I hate that San Francisco are such big favourites for this game as it makes little sense considering they are on the road, but I do think they are the better all around team and I do think they win the game and likely cover the spread.

When capping games, it is a silly way of looking at things to think San Francisco couldn't beat St Louis, so how can they beat Atlanta... I mean Atlanta lost to Carolina and Tampa Bay and would anyone seriously back them to beat the 49ers?

So teams have strange results- if you have watched the NFL for any length of time, you will know that happens.

However, I think Atlanta have some serious questions to answer when it comes to Quarter Backs like Colin Kaepernick- most will look at what Russell Wilson did to them last week, but remember Carolina should have beaten the Falcons twice this season with Cam Newton running an Offense with similar skill sets to Kaepernick and Atlanta couldn't stop the Panthers in those games.

Both Wilson and Newton have shown the blueprint to carving up the Atlanta Defense and I don't see how the Falcons adjust enough to stop Kaepernick.

One other difference between the likes of Seattle and Carolina and the 49ers is that San Francisco have a much meaner Defense that will be able to get to Matt Ryan and cause problems for this Offense. They wil likely make Atlanta one-dimensional and I just think they will slow the Falcons enough to cover.

Don't get me wrong though, there are some serious trends favouring Atlanta and it will likely be close no matter which team covers. I just have to pick the one I feel can make more big, positive plays and will call for Jim Harbaugh to reach the Super Bowl.

The Statistics :

The Pick :