NFL Football
2013-01-20 - San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL : NFC Championship
Sunday, January 20th, 2013, 3:00PM (8:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
There is a decent chance the Harbaugh brothers get to meet in the Superbowl, but both San Francisco and Baltimore would have to win. Most are expecting at least one to definitely get to the big game. Call me contrarian but I've a feeling both will miss out!
The spread opened at 3 points with the 49ers favoured and has moved up a precious half point to 3.5 now, which is great news if you like the Falcons. Not many are giving them a chance here, despite being home, based on last weeks performances.
Last week the Falcons blew a massive 20-0 lead in the 2nd half and went behind with just 31 seconds left, but Matt Ryan, for the 22nd time in his career, led his team down the field in a winning final drive of the game, culminating in a 49 yard FG with seconds on the clock. In contrast, the 49ers absolutely went to town on the Green Bay Packers, racking up almost 580 yards of offence, in a 45-31 win. Kaepernick rushed for 181 yards, an NFL record for a QB, to help beat the team he grew up supporting back in Milwaukee.
I think it might be a good thing the Falcons almost lost last week. Until then they had not won a playoff game with Ryan, but they finally did it, after the horror show that was last seasons first playoff game. They will surely play with focus this week the entire game, knowing how the 49ers can take advantage. Doesn't hurt that they get to host the NFC game, because they have an 8-1 record at home this season, and are 34-8 here since Smith took over. Ryan does not lose here often at all, and despite the brilliant win in Green Bay, that is going to be a problem for Kaepernick. You see, the rookie is just 2-2 on the road and 1-1 when playing in a dome. When playing indoors, Kaepernick has just 1 TD pass and 1 interception with a passer rating of only 87.
The h2h shows Atlanta as the dominant team in recent meetings. The Falcons have won 6 of 9 and have won the lat 4 meetings. Kaepernick has been making mistakes and I think the enormity of the occasion, on the road, in a dome, gets to him. Last week he had a pass picked off an taken back for a score, and I have a feeling the Falcons will make him make mistakes.
The 49ers pass rush has shown signs of weakness, and I feel at home, there is a chance Ryan wins this by making some epic plays, much like last week.
BETTING VERDICT
The spread is low for a reason. Looking at the last 5 AFC Championship games you'll see no fewer than 3 have gone to OT, and all 5 have been settled by 7 points or fewer.
I really really like Atlanta to win this one outright, and why not. In 2 meetings, San Francisco could not beat the St. Louis Rams, ending in an OT tie and then beaten in OT.
My gut is saying the Falcons take this, so will suggest you take them with the 3.5 point start.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atlanta Falcons 24-23 San Francisco 49ers
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Atlanta Falcons +3.5 @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
