NFL Football
2013-01-20 - Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL : AFC Championship
Sunday, January 20th, 2013, 6:30PM (11:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
New England did exactly what I expected them to do, running it up against the Texans, who they beat 41-28, easily covering the 10 point spread. They were installed as massive 9.5 point favourites for this AFC Championship game, but that has now dropped to 8 points. Still, more than a TD, and it looks a tad high considering the same game last year ended in just a narrow 23-20 win.
The teams have met this season, with the Ravens winning in Baltimore 31-30 on a very suspect last second FG which had Belichick fuming! Baltimore claimed an unexpected scalp as massive underdogs, taking the Manning-led home favourites to a 2nd OT where they knocked out the more fancied Denver Broncos.
Hard to argue against the Patriots winning this game. Brady is now the owner of a 17-6 playoff record, the best in history, and is 3-0 in AFC Championship games played at GIllette Stadium. His Patriots are 14-3 in home playoff games, best ever.
However, Baltimore are the owners of the best away record in playoff games for teams that played away at least 10 times, 8-5. It's down to Joe Flacco, who is now 1 game away from the Superbowl for the 3rd time in his 5 year career. He's been making massive plays in the playoff, where it pays to be brave. His 5 TD passes came at an average of 40 yards!
I think the Ravens are playing with a lot of emotion, there is the Ray Lewis issue, extending his games before he retires. Flacco is performing and his offensive line are keeping him upright, he's been sacked just twice in 2 playoff games.
But still I can't bring myself to consider the Patriots losing. Brady lost Gronk again but they still tore into the Texans and at home, where they have never lost an AFC Championship game with Tom Brady, I'm not about to bet against them.
BETTING VERDICT
Of course, the win price is too low and we're here to have an ATS bet. The Patriots are capable of blowing out the Ravens, because the Ravens come here with a day's more rest, but surely knackered after the game Denver gave them up in altitude. Despite this being a big game, there is a chance of a physical letdown, not to mention psychological, even if just for a quarter or two which would see them buried.
But the Ravens have beaten the Patriots already this year in Baltimore (dodgy FG though!), and last year came here and had the chance to score a TD for the lead but then missed a FG to take it to OT, ending up 23-20 losers. You have to think they find a way to hang on, and with the spread above 7 points, it makes sense to go with Baltimore.
My head is saying Baltimore but my heart is saying New England. I'm going to listen to my heart, because ruthless Belichick and Brady may well feast on a tired Ravens side that gave it all last week. Everywhere you look, the opinion is that surely Baltimore stay within this massive spread. If it was that easy, wouldn't it have fallen to at least 7?
No, my gut is now chiming in too. Take the Patriots.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New England Patriots 42-23
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the New England Patriots -8 @ 1.97 (Pinnacle)
