NCAA Football
2013-01-07 - Alabama at Notre Dame
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Monday, January 7th, 2013, 8:30PM (1:30AM GMT)
PREVIEW
The Sun Life Stadium in Miami will host this years National Championship, with Notre Dame trying to win it for the first time since 1988, while Nick Saban's Alabama are going for their 3rd title in the last 4 years. They are defending champions, having gone undefeated last season and blanking LSU in the one side final last year.
Alabama did lose this year, going down, at home, by close to a TD to Texas A&M. Their 12-1 record was still goo enough to get them to the title game against Notre Dame, who pulled some amazing performances to stay undefeated. I realise Alabama are great, and that Notre Dame have been shaky, but the difference is Alabama have been beaten while Notre Dame found a way. That makes the 10 point spread, 9.5 now, too big in my opinion.
Understand that for all Alabama are, Notre Dame are absolutely brutal on defence. They are 1st in the country, allowing just 10 points per game, and their red zone defence is the best in the country too, allowing just 8 TDs in 33 attempts! So Alabama can move the ball all they want, it only counts if they finish drives with points! Remember how Notre Dame were massive underdogs against high scoring Oklahoma? They beat the Sooners 30-13, in Oklahoma! The team respect no one and it's led to them being 12-0 and ranked 1st.
I think the scoring is going to be low in this one. Both teams have excellent defences. Both teams are almost certainly going to run the ball on the bulk of their plays, so the clock keeps ticking. Because of the defences being so good, I don't think either team will take gambles to go for lots of points, because every score could be the defining score, such is the nature of the defences. They will be happy to get to FG range and kick for points to keep them going, and don't be surprised to see them miss FGs too as drives may well be choked out before they're close enough.
BETTING VERDICT
My lean on the side is with Notre Dame, who I think will do a better job than LSU last year. Take them with the points as I see the difference being no more than a TD in the end.
For my official bet here, I'm going to suggest the Under 41, but if you can, stake a bit on both my picks, as I will.
The Pick :
Alabama 20-17 Notre Dame
