NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - OREGON @ KANSAS STATE

NCAA Football

2013-01-03 - Oregon at Kansas State

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

OREGON DUCKS @ KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
American Football : North America : NCAAF : FIESTA BOWL
Thursday, January 3rd, 2013, 8:30PM (1:30AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

The Fiesta Bowl takes centre stage on Thursday, pitting the 11-1 Kansas State Wildcats against the 11-1 Oregon Ducks.

Were it not for the losses to Baylor and Stanford, respectively, on the same day back in mid November, both colleges could well have been in with a chance of being in the BCS National Championship game. But for this year, the Fiesta Bowl will have to do.

Thanks to Oregons 2nd best, and Kansas State's 4th best offence, the oddsmaker set the total at 77, but it has now dropped to 74.5 and I feel there isn't as much value in that, so I'll go back to looking at a side.

For while both teams scored at will, 51 per game for Oregon, and 41 per game by Kansas State, both did very well defensively, restricting teams to just 22 and 21 points respectively. Oregon got opponents to turn the ball over 39 times, best in the country, while Kansas State registered 31 takeaways.

But when you look at turnover margin, that is, takeaways vs giveaways, it is Kansas State who are better. In fact, they lead the nation in turnover margin. And while they are only just better than Oregon in defence, but 10 points behind on offence, they get the nod with special teams, as they have the best punt return and kickoff return unit in the country.

The Kansas State Wildcats have a real star in QB Collin Klein, who completed 66% of his passes at about 9.2 yards per pass, with 15 TDs and just 7 picks.

That wasn't his only strength, as Klein rushed the ball at 4.6 yards per carry for 22 TDs too! That got him a chance at the Heisman, where he finished a very respectable 3rd. Klein could not help his team stay perfect as they lost to high scoring Baylor 52-24 but bounced back to rally his team to a crushing defeat of Texas in the season finale, winning 42-24.

Hubert had some brilliant games, getting the team 15 rushing TDs amongst his 892 yards, while the top receiver for the team, Chris Harper, had 3 scores in his 50 catches, averaging over 15 yards per catch.

The motivation here is that this is Klein's final NCAAF game. And Harper will want a win against a team he transferred out of to come to Kansas State. Expect a huge performance from both men.

BETTING VERDICT

I'm looking at the 3.77 available on Kansas State winning this, and I'm very tempted.

But there is an added angle here that might favour Oregon. They may well be losing their coach, Chip Kelly, after this game, as he will likely be snapped up by one of the many NFL teams that have just sacked their coach.

Kelly has led his Oregon team to a 45-7 record in the years he has been there, including 33-3 in their conference. That emotional edge from losing him, and wanting to send him out with a big win, may well drag Oregon over the line to get past Kansas State and so for that reason I will take the points with Kansas State in a game they have a damn good chance of winning.

The Pick :