NCAA Football
2012-12-27 - Cincinnati Bearcats at Duke Blue Devils
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF : BELK BOWL
Thursday, December 27th, 2012, 6:30PM (11:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
The number has dropped from double digits to just 8 with Cincinnati still favoured to beat Duke. I realise that number is still more than the key number of 7, but I think the oddsmakers had it right before the markets changed it. More than anything, Cincinnati have mammoth motivation to perform well here.
You could argue that Cinci just want to win, having lost their coach to Tennessee. I have used that to go against San Jose State earlier in the day. However, they have a solid new coach in Tommy Tuberville, and while he wont take charge for this one, they will want to impress.
The main reason though for wanting to do well here is Cincinnati's desire to move conference. They went 5-2 in the Big East and would very much like to play in the ACC. Who else plays in the ACC? Duke. And their coach was the ACC coach of the year. A crushing win over Duke and their coach would get everyone's attention. Consider this an interview for the ACC!
Momentum will be another factor here as Duke has limped into the postseason. They started 6-2 but finished the season 0-4. During the 4 game losing streak, they gave up an average of 50 points a game!!
That Duke defence will have it's hands full with the Cincinnati offence. Munchie Legaux was replaced at QB by Brendon Kay, who threw for 966 yards and 6 TDs, with just 2 picks. He ran in 2 scores himself, giving the team an additional 230 yards on the ground.
Duke's defence was the ACC, giving up 35 points per game, including 50 through the last 4 games. They gave up 462 yards per game, 2nd worst in the conference. Now teams can give up yardage but not allow points by being good in the red zone. Not Duke. They allowed 91% conversion in the red zone, which is truly terrible, meaning Cinci will not just move the chains down the field, but almost always come away with points, because Duke don't know how to stop them.
BETTING VERDICT
Ok, time for a bet. I'll go with Cincinnati to win well and cover the spread to make a statement. I'll also suggest a teaser of the 2 games today, which I would be very surprised to see lose.
The Pick :
Cincinnati 38-28 Duke
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
MAIN BET:
Take Cincinnati -8 points @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Consider: 7 point 2 team teaser: Cincinnati -1 & Bowling Green +14.5 @ 1.80 (Pinnacle)
Take Cincinnati -8 points @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
Consider: 7 point 2 team teaser: Cincinnati -1 & Bowling Green +14.5 @ 1.80 (Pinnacle)
