NCAA Football
2012-12-24 - Fresno State at SMU
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF : HAWAII BOWL
Monday, December 24th, 2012, 8:00PM (1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
There is a bowl game to be contested on Christmas Eve. Fresno State will meet SMU in Honolulu for the Hawaii Bowl. This is familiar territory for SMU coach June Jones, who used to be the coach at Hawaii, and led them to this very bowl on the back of a 12-1 season. But that was then, and this is now. SMU went 6-6 in the regular season, and I can't see them spoiling Fresnos day.
Last year SMU beat Pittsburgh 28-6 in the Compass Bowl, and that coupled with Fresnos bad bowl performances in recent years has led to the spread dropping a bit. It currently sits at 11.5 and I'm going to get involved and take Frenso to cover the number. Fresno finished 9-3 for the season and were 7-1 in conference play in their first season in the Mountain West Conference.
The team is under first year coach Tim DeRuyter, who has been named MWC coach of the year for his performance with Fresno, as he is their most successful first year coach ever. They need this for a Bowl win and a 10 win season, and I doubt he will have his team playing anything short of ruthless. There is enough talent on both sides of the ball to maul SMU.
QB Derek Carr (whose brother David moved to the NFL) threw for over 400 yards in 3 games this year, an MWC record, and completed 36 TD passes, 2nd most in league history. Interceptions? Just 5. With a passer efficiency rating of 161, he ranks 1st in the MWC and 9th in the country.
Then there is Robbie Rouse, who became the schools all time leading rusher this season. He rushed for 1,468 yards and 12 TDs and was also the 2nd best receiver on the team, with 58 receptions for 406 yards and 2 TDs. That combination is lethal and he will surely have a big game here.
SMU Garrett Gilbert did average 226 yards per game with 14 TD passes, but he was picked off 13 times too. That means a lot will be expected of Zach Line, the Mustangs leading rusher.
Both sides do well on turnovers, cancelling each other out. I think this will come down to who is the better offence, and while I can see Carr stepping up and having a big game, it is likely Gilbert will not be able to keep up, leading to mistakes and the gap in score widening.
BETTING VERDICT
It's a double digit spread, but I'm happy to take Fresno State, as I expect them to win this by at least 2 TDs.
The Pick :
Fresno State 35-20 SMU
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Fresno State -11.5 @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
