NFL Football
2012-12-16 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 16 December 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
Two teams that won't be playing in the post-season will meet one another on Sunday night, but there are enough storylines to keep the fans interested on both sides of the ball. The Miami Dolphins (5-8) have hit a wall after a good start to the season, while the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) still have a chance of finishing the Number 1 pick in the Draft next season.
While neither team will be playing in the Play Offs, Chad Henne of the Jaguars will be highly motivated as he gets a chance to play against his former team that allowed him to be traded in the off-season. Henne has come in for the awful Blaine Gabbert and has at least provided some sort of a spark for Jacksonville even if he has struggled the last two games.
Henne should have some success moving the ball through the air in this one and he will have to have that success if Jacksonville are to have a chance to pull the upset. The Quarter Back has Cecil Shorts back in the line up to give him an additional threat in the receiving corps against a Defense that has allowed over 250 yards per game through the air this season.
With the added motivation of playing his former team, Henne should want to prove to the fans that he can lead a team to success. Jacksonville have missed Maurice Jones-Drew for a number of weeks and that means the carries will be given to Montell Owens to try and establish a running game. That will at least afford Henne more time in the pocket to find his receivers.
Miami have dropped 5 of their last 6 to end their real chances of making it through to the Play Offs, and it does feel like there is a little bit of tiredness in the team. Ryan Tannehill should be able to move the chains through the air in this one as the Jaguars have struggled to get to the Quarter Back and have also been strugging to turn the ball over.
However, the Dolphins don't have to solely rely on their rookie signal caller to get the chains moving in this one- I expect Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas to be able to put up a large amount of yards on the ground as Jacksonville have struggled to stop the run all season, including giving up over 350 yards in their last 2 games.
Head to Head
These two Conference and in-State rivals last met in 2009 when Miami recorded a 4 point win on the road at Jacksonville.
Miami have only hosted Jacksonville once since this franchise was created and it was the Jaguars who won that game by 14 points back in 2006.
Prediction
Jacksonville really do suck as a team, but they look a little healthier and should have a huge motivation to do well against another team from the State of Florida. I also think the Miami Dolphins have hit the wall a little bit in recent games, which was to be expected considering they have a very young team and management.
Miami are also a pretty terrible home favourite to back and getting more than a touchdown start knowing that Chad Henne should be very highly motivated looks a little generous to me.
I just hope the Jaguars are still playing for a little pride and not going to tank games down the stretch in a bid to finish with the Number 1 pick in the Draft.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Miami Dolphins 24-20 Jacksonville Jaguars
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'll back Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.92
