NFL Football
2012-12-09 - Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 9 December 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
With the NFC South wrapped up, the Atlanta Falcons (11-1) will look to all by lock up the Number 1 seed in the NFC which they currently lead by at least 3.5 games. However, they will not have it easy against their Divisional rivals in the form of the Carolina Panthers (3-9) who will be looking to bounce back from a loss at Kansas City.
Atlanta picked up a huge emotional win over the New Orleans Saints last week as they picked off Drew Brees 5 times and also snapped his streak of throwing a touchdown pass for a record number in the NFL history.
I think the Falcons will look to their passing game in this one as Matt Ryan will be looking to utilise a trio of receivers that are amongst the best corps in the entire League. Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will pose problems for the Panthers, although Carolina are at least getting a little more pressure on the Quarter Back of late and should be able to get through this Offensive Line.
That means the Falcons could look to Michael Turner to establish the running game, even if the veteran has lost a little of his spark this season. It is entirely possible to run against this Panthers Defense, but I am not sure Turner has the burst to take full advantage, although he should ensure Matt Ryan is in a position to keep the chains moving using his arm.
Cam Newton should be another Quarter Back that enjoys success in this game as the Atlanta Secondary is a little beaten up and the second year player is definitely playing better at this moment than he was earlier in the season. He should be able to hook up with Steve Smith for gains through the air, although he has the same issues as Matt Ryan in playing behind an Offensive Line that will struggle to contain the pass rush.
However, Atlanta are allowing over 120 yards per game on the ground at 4.8 yards per clip so Newton and D'Angelo Williams should be able to find some running room as long as the game is close. That will force Atlanta to respect the rush and will also keep the Panthers Offense in manageable situations where they can keep the chains moving.
Head to Head
Atlanta beat Carolina 30-28 at home earlier this season to extend their run to 5 wins in a row in the series.
That run includes winning on their last 2 visits to Carolina.
Prediction
This is a closer game than may be expected and the 3 point spread looks a really trappy number.
Carolina have pushed Atlanta in all 3 meetings since Cam Newton arrived in Charlotte, and I think they make enough plays to take advantage of a team that could be emotionally flat after knocking off the New Orleans Saints in their last game.
I might look foolish on Sunday evening, but the Panthers with the points looks the call.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Carolina Panthers 20-21 Atlanta Falcons
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'll back the Carolina Panthers +3 Points @ 2.05
