NFL Football
2012-12-09 - Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 9 December 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
While the AFC South has already been locked up by the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts (8-4) are still very much involved with the Wild Card chase and could be a couple of wins away from securing their place. This is a remarkable season for the Colts considering the change in personnel and staff in the off-season, but clearly the team have rallied together for Chuck Pegano who continues his fight against cancer.
However, the Colts cannot afford to think too far into the future and a possible clash with the Denver Broncos as the Tennessee Titans (4-8) don't have much to play for except knocking off a Divisional rival and damaging their chances of playing in the post-season.
After a comfortable loss last weekend against the Houston Texans at home, the Titans will be hoping for a bit of revenge against the Colts following a close loss to them in Nashville earlier in the season.
I expect Chris Johnson will get the ball to pound against this Colts Defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season and have given up over 120 yards per game on the ground. He will need to establish the running game to make sure that Jake Locker is not under pressure after struggling since returning to the starting line up.
After getting back from injury, Locker has 5 interceptions and also lost 2 fumbles in his last 3 games and he has to improve on those numbers. Tennessee should be able to get the pass going against the Colts Defense which is far worse than anyone will let on, although the Titans Offensive Line means Locker cannot be left in third and long situations.
Indianapolis will be very proud of the way Andrew Luck has played for them in his rookie season, although a lot of the praise going his way is for the performances down the stretch in games to earn the win for the Colts. Luck has been particularly good at home this season and the Tennessee Secondary has really struggled all season so I am expecting the Colts to be able to move the chains through the air easily.
Donald Brown is out for the Colts, but Vince Ballard can also get the run game established despite the Indianapolis team only picking up 3.9 yards per carry so far this season. Indianapolis gashed Tennessee in the first meeting and I expect them to open things up for Luck by forcing the Titans to look for the run in this one too.
Head to Head
Indianapolis beat Tennessee by 6 points earlier this season, although that win came in overtime.
The Colts have won their last 4 home games against Tennessee and they are 15-4 in their last 19 games in the series.
Prediction
I don't feel great laying so many points on the Indianapolis Defense, but I think they are the better team and playing with a lot more momentum of the two teams.
Andrew Luck should be able to have a big game in this one and I think Jake Locker likely makes a mistake that allows the Colts to cover the spread and win the game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Indianapolis Colts 27-20 Tennessee Titans
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'll back Indianapolis Colts -5 Points @ 1.95
