NCAA Football
2012-11-09 - Pittsburgh at Connecticut
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Friday, November 9th, 2012, 8:00PM (1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
So how will Pittsburgh react to that loss last week? They had won 2 straight games and were looking for their 5th win of the season against #4 Notre Dame. They led 20-6 in the 4th, yet went on to lose in Triple OT. It's a gutting way to blow a game, having had the chance to kick a 33 yarder to seal it.
Pittsburgh can still make the postseason, provided they win 2 of their last 3 games. This game comes away from home, but it's a very winnable one, provided they don't let their heads drop. Connecticut are just 3-6 themselves, and need to win all their games, but from what I've seen, that isn't going to happen.
UConn are 0-4 in conference play, and last week picked up a pathetic 1.4 yards per rushing play in losing to South Florida, their 4th straight defeat of the season. Let's call it what it is, a full on slump. UConn do well on defence, but they just can't score points. Last week, they scored just 6 against South Florida, and made just 1 trip inside the red zone. All season, they've been in the red zone just 22 times, which is awful because they're not sustaining drives.
Tino Sunseri is leading his Pittsburgh offence well, competing 69% of his passes for 2,363 yards with 14 TD passes and just 2 picks. In contrast, UConn QB Whitmer has connected on just 59% of his throws, and his 7 TD passes mean nothing as he's been intercepted 13 times!
Pittsburgh were able to gash that Notre Dame defence last week and own a massive lead, with a lot of yardage picked up on the ground. Ray Graham rushed for 172 yards and a score on just 24 carries, which is over 7 yards per carry, more than Notre Dame have given up to anyone. UConn may be home, but they are up against it, big time. Last year, they lost this fixture 35-20, but the spread is just 3 points here.
BETTING VERDICT
I've got to go with Pittsburgh, who should win this by at least a TD.
The Pick :
Pittsburgh 24-17 Connecticut
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Pittsburgh -3 @ 1.96 (Pinnacle)
