NFL Football
2012-10-04 - Arizona Cardinals at St Louis Rams
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Thursday 4 October 2012 - Kick Off 8:20pm
1:20am (British Time)
Preview
Much has changed in the last couple of seasons in the NFL and one of those things is that the NFC West is no longer the laughing stock of the League. This is a game between two of the teams in the Division as the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals (4-0) visit the St Louis Rams (2-2) in the live Thursday night affair.
Arizona have to be the biggest surprise in the NFL, although their good form has gone back into last season and they currently lead the NFC West by a game over the San Francisco 49ers. They are also 1-0 in the Division and that is where the importance behind this game begins to increase as St Louis are also 1-0 within the Division.
The Cardinals won yet another close game last weekend as they beat the Miami Dolphins in OT and now they come into St Louis with a lot of momentum behind them. Arizona haven't had a lot of success running the ball so far this season, but Ryan Williams may just find some room in this one as the Rams allow 4.7 yards per carry and they are giving up 135 yards per game on the ground.
Williams will need to get things going as Arizona really struggled on the Offensive Line last week and their two Tackles couldn't keep Kevin Kolb protected for most of the game. If Williams can get the ball moving on the ground, the pass rush would have to slow down a touch and that would give Kolb time to make sure he finds Larry Fitzgerald or Michael Floyd, two big targets downfield.
Kolb was intercepted twice on Sunday and will have to be careful against this St Louis Defense that has already got 8 interceptions on the season which is second best in the League.
On the other hand, it is going to be tough for St Louis and Steven Jackson to move the ball on the ground as Arizona have been pretty stout on that front and that will mean the pressure is going to land on Sam Bradford's shoulders.
It won't be easy for the former Number 1 Pick as the Offensive Line has been porous at best so far this season as injuries are taking their toll on this unit. The absence of Darnell Dockett would be huge for St Louis as it may just give Bradford a little more time without his Offensive Line being blown up, but even that will be tough.
One element that will work for Bradford is seeing what Ryan Tannehill did to this Arizona Secondary on Sunday as he threw for over 400 yards, but Bradford will need time to expose this Secondary. One other element that St Louis have to be careful of as a team is the number of turnovers created by the Cardinals so far- they have 10 turnovers on the season with 6 of those coming through forced fumbles, which shows that the Rams have to protect the ball even when they have secured it.
There is one department where St Louis do have an edge over most teams and that is in the field goal department- Greg Zuerlin is a rookie kicker that has hit all 12 of his field goal attempts this season, but unbelievably is very comfortable from long range as he hit a 58 yarder and a 60 yarder at the weekend.
Head to Head
Arizona have dominated the recent series between these teams, winning 10 of the last 11 between them and they are 8-3 against the spread in those games.
The Rams have lost their last 7 home games against Arizona and they are just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 at home.
Other Interesting Trends
St Louis are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against teams from the NFC West.
Arizona have won their last 6 games against the spread when playing teams from the same Conference.
Prediction
I am going to back the Arizona Cardinals to move to 5-0 in this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Cardinals have dominated the recent series between the two teams and I feel they may be the little fresher mentally having played Miami at the weekend while St Louis had a tough Divisional game against Seattle.
Second, I believe a little more in the Arizona Offense than I do in St Louis' and I think Kevin Kolb will be able to have more time to make big plays than his counterpart Sam Bradford.
Third, there is a big trend that goes against St Louis is in this one and that is the team is only 1-8 against the spread when playing a Divisional rival immediately after playing a Divisional rival.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
St Louis Rams 20-24 Arizona Cardinals
