NFL Football
2012-10-01 - Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Monday 1 October 2012 - Kick Off 8:30pm
1:30am (British Time)
Preview
The NFL has been the competitive League it is famous for in the early going and that means we see two teams with winning records facing off on Monday Night Football. The Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys are both 2-1 and in a good position in their respective Divisions, but this is very early in the new season.
I am writing this while watching the New York Giants play the Philadelphia Eagles, and one of those teams will be leading the NFC East when Dallas kick-off, although Washington's win over Tampa Bay shows the toughness of the Division as no team has a losing record.
Chicago are currently second in the NFC North behind the surprising Minnesota Vikings, but this games importance will not be lost on them either as they will want to keep ahead of the Green Bay Packers if possible as well as the Detroit Lions.
The two teams are actually similar to one another with the Defenses playing at a much higher level than the Offenses.
Tony Romo was excellent in week 1 against the New York Giants, but the last two weeks have been a struggle for him as the Offensive Line problems continue to allow any pressure to get in the Quarter Back's face before he has a moment to settle. Those issues won't be cleared up this week as Julius Peppers and the Chicago Defensive Line should cause havoc in the backfield.
And it isn't as if he can give the ball to DeMarco Murray and ask the Running Back to pick up yards on the ground- Dallas have struggled to establish a running game, while the Bears are only allowing 76 yards per game on the ground at 3.8 yards per clip.
The play calling has been head scratching at times too as the Cowboys refuse to call the screens that were so effective in getting Murray's legs going in the opening week at the Giants. I am assuming they still haven't figured that out and imagine it will be tough for the Dallas Offense to move the chains with any kind of consistency.
If Offensive Line problems are your idea of entertainment, you will have the fill of them as Chicago have also struggled to keep Jay Cutler upright. Everyone would have seen Cutler chew out his Left Tackle J'Marcus Webb in the loss to Green Bay in week 2, but the Bears continue to struggle on that front.
DeMarcus Ware will line up anywhere on the Defensive front seven and I think the Bears are going to have a tough time stopping him and the Dallas pass rush getting to Cutler in this one. Even if Cutler does surprisingly have time, he is facing a Dallas Secondary that was upgraded in the off-season and has been performing at a high level by allowing under 140 yards per game through the air.
Much like Dallas, Chicago can't negate the pass rush and force more players to come up to the line of scrimmage as they have struggled to run the ball with the both Matt Forte and Michael Bush banged up, although both could be suited up on Monday. The Cowboys are also allowing 113 yards per game on the ground, moving at 4 yards per clip, so the pressure will be on Cutler and his receivers if the Bears are to win this game.
Head to Head
The teams actually last played a couple of years ago when they met in Dallas in a game the Bears won as 7 point underdogs.
The Cowboys had previously won 3 in a row at home against Chicago, covering the spread in each game.
The teams have split the last 6 games 3-3 against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Dallas are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games against teams from the NFC.
They have lost their last 4 home games against the spread.
Prediction
I am going to have a small play on the Chicago Bears to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, these two teams are very similar so I am expecting a close call. Taking the Bears with 3.5 points looks a big number of points as this has all the makings of a field goal decided game.
Second, one major difference between the teams in the early goings is the number of turnovers each Defense creates. While Jay Cutler is guilty of turning the ball over when he mentally shuts down in games, Dallas haven't had many interceptions, so that edge for Chicago may just give them enough extra possessions to maybe win this game outright.
Third, the Cowboys are a horrible home favourite to back, going just 3-12 against the spread in that spot over the last couple of seasons, while they are 3-10 against the spread when favoured between 3.5 and 9.5 points in that time.
Fourth, another trend that goes against Dallas is that they are 1-8 against the spread when coming in off a straight up win, including 0-1 so far this season.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Dallas Cowboys 17-14 Chicago Bears
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.85
