NFL Football
2012-09-30 - Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 30 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
This looks like already being a 'must-win' game for the Detroit Lions (1-2) who blew their chance to win in Tennessee last week thanks to some confusion when wanting to kick a game-tying field goal in overtime. They now face AFC North rivals, the Minnesota Vikings (2-1) who are coming off a win over the San Francisco 49ers, a team that had beaten Detroit and Green Bay in consecutive weeks.
It took Vegas a little bit of time to get a line out on this game as the status of Matthew Stafford was unclear- however, he looks set to start in this game after recovering from a hip injury suffered in Tennessee and that is very big news for the Lions.
Shaun Hill did play well in relief of Stafford last week, but a lot of the blame for the way the game ended has landed on his shoulders as the Quarter Back on the field. With Stafford in the line up, I expect the Lions to be able to get at the Minnesota Secondary that has given up over 200 passing yards per game against much weaker Quarter Backs.
The Offensive Line is giving Stafford enough protection and he has the weapons in the receiving corps to think the Lions will have plenty of success in the air.
It could be a really tough day for Minnesota if Mikel Leshoure picks up from where he left off in his first game in the NFL last week. Leshoure has the power to break some serious runs and that balance will only make the Detroit Offense that much more productive. It won't be easy for the Back this week as Minnesota are restricting teams to 3.4 yards per game, but that balance could be the key to them moving the chains.
Christian Ponder had a big game for the Vikings in the win over San Francisco, but he will have to be at his best again as the Detroit Lions are going to get pressure in his face for much of the day. Minnesota's Offensive Line has had problems, but they will look to negate the pass rush by establishing a running game.
Detroit have a decent stat against the run so far this season as they are restricting teams to 3.9 yards per carry, but taking on Adrian Peterson is a different matter. However, the Vikings haven't established the run easily and are only moving at 3.8 yards per clip.
I do think Minnesota will be able to move the ball on the ground and keep Ponder in 3rd and manageable situations and that should improve the chances of the Quarter Back having another big game for the Vikings.
Head to Head
Detroit have now won 3 in a row in the series having previously lost 6 straight, although they are only 1-1-1 against the spread in that winning run.
The Lions have won 2 in a row at home in the series, although they are now 2-2 against the spread in their last 4 here against Minnesota.
Other Interesting Trends
Detroit are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games at home.
They are 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games against Conference rivals.
They have lost their last 4 games against the spread when playing Divisional rivals.
Minnesota are just 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against teams from the NFC North.
Prediction
I am going to back the Detroit Lions to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I just feel the Minnesota Vikings have been over-rated on their one win against the 49ers last week and it has seemingly been erased that they lost to the Indianapolis Colts this season.
Second, Matthew Stafford should be starting on Sunday and I think he will exploit the match ups he has with his quality receiving corps against a Vikings Secondary that hasn't been exposed down to the Quarter Backs they have faced. In saying that, go back and look at the way Blaine Gabbert and Andrew Luck were able to make big plays and I don't see how Stafford doesn't do the same.
Third, the spread looks a little nuts to me considering Detroit were 9 point favourites when the spreads were first announced and I don't think enough has happened in the first three weeks to think 5 points should be taken off.
Fourth, Detroit can put forth their entire effort into this game with a bye following this week.
Fifth, I like a couple of trends that go against Minnesota: they are 2-6 against the spread as the a road underdog against a Divisional rival; they are 1-9 against the spread following a straight up win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Detroit Lions 27-17 Minnesota Vikings
