NFL Football
2012-09-30 - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 30 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
The NFC South looks like it might be a one horse race as the Atlanta Falcons (3-0) are the only team with a winning record so far. They could start putting their foot on the throat of some of the other teams in the South as they host the Carolina Panthers (1-2) in their first Divisional game of the season.
The Falcons have been very good in the opening 3 weeks of the season and they have knocked off some solid teams in Denver and San Diego. On the other hand, Carolina are already 1-1 in the Division following a win over New Orleans and a loss to Tampa Bay, but they looked terrible last time out as they were destroyed by the New York Giants.
Atlanta will feel their new no-huddle, pass first Offense is going to have another big day in this one and I would agree with them. Matt Ryan should get plenty of time in the pocket to find his targets Roddy White and Julio Jones and there hasn't been a lot the Panthers have been able to do to slow down passing Offenses so far.
We may also see the Falcons running game get back to basics as the team are struggling to 3.5 yards per carry so far this season, but will be going against a Carolina Defense that was gashed by the Giants who were missing Ahmad Bradshaw ten days ago. I don't have much doubt that the Falcons move the chains in this one fairly comfortably for the most part.
Some are suggesting Defenses have figured out Cam Newton and the second year Quarter Back was also called out by Steve Smith for not acting like a leader as he sulked when the Panthers were down big to the Giants and Newton was pulled.
It will be interesting to see how Newton responds to criticism as he has never had to do that for his playing ability since leading Auburn to the National Championship in College Football and also producing the goods in his rookie year in the NFL.
Newton has had it rough as his Offensive Line is struggling to protect the young Quarter Back, although he can also be criticised for making some bad decisions that have led to the team turning the ball over.
He also hasn't been helped by a lack of a running game, but Jonathan Stewart could be back this week to help on that front. Carolina have surprisingly rushed for under 100 yards per game this season, although this is definitely a weakness in the Atlanta Defense with the Falcons allowing 5 yards per carry.
To make full use of this match up, the Panthers need to keep up with Atlanta and not force Newton into obvious passing situations that will be exploited by a ball-hawking Atlanta Secondary.
Head to Head
Atlanta have now won 4 in a row in the series after beating Cam Newton and the Panthers twice last season and the Falcons have covered the spread in all of these games.
The Falcons have won their last 4 home games against Carolina and they have covered the spread in all of those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Atlanta are 33-16-2 against the spread in their last 51 games against a team with a losing record.
Carolina are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
I hate it when a spread looks too good to be true, but I know I will regret it if I don't pick the Atlanta Falcons to win this game cover the spread. My reasons are as follows:
First, this is a Divisional game so I expect the Falcons to be absolutely focused on the game as they really look to stamp their authority on the NFC South.
Second, the Falcons have dominated Carolina in recent games in the series, especially at the Georgia Dome.
Third, there is something not quite right with Cam Newton and I think it will be tough for him and the Carolina Offense to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons who have a high-powered, quick strike Offense.
Fourth, Carolina are just 3-7 against the spread when set as the road underdog against a Divisional rival.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Atlanta Falcons 31-21 Carolina Panthers
