Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals Betting pick | 2012-09-30

NFL Football

2012-09-30 - Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 30 September 2012 - Kick Off 4:05pm
9:05pm (British Time)

Preview

One of the surprise packages in the early going in the NFL are the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals (3-0) who have taken care of teams like New England and Philadelphia in that run. Now they have another non-Conference game on the schedule as they are visited by the Miami Dolphins (1-2) who have been very competitive in their last 2 games and were a missed field goal from leading the AFC East.

The Dolphins would have knocked off the New York Jets last week and given the Dolphins top spot in the AFC East. The Cardinals are currently top of the NFC West as the only unbeaten team, but both Seattle and San Francisco are only a game behind.

Playing a rookie at Quarter Back can always make life tough as they are going to suffer through teething problems, but Ryan Tannehill has actually played fairly well in the last couple of games following a rough outing against Houston.

Tannehill is going to have a tougher match up this week as Arizona find plenty of pressure up front and will give the Dolphins Offensive Line a few problems. However, Darnell Dockett could potentially be absent and that is a big miss in the middle of the Defensive Line of the Cardinals.

I still don't think it will make a huge difference in terms of Tannehill's performance as the Arizona Secondary may be returning Adrian Wilson this week and the Cardinals have prevented better and more experienced Quarter Backs from lighting them up.

The good news for Miami is that Reggie Bush is travelling to Arizona and should be suited up to start at the running back position. Bush has been great in his time at Miami and he will get to carry the bulk of the Offense on his shoulders along with Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller. Arizona are holding teams to 3.9 yards per carry, but the Dolphins have excelled in this area this season and they should be able to get something going on the ground in this one as long as the game is close.

Kevin Kolb will continue running the Offense for Arizona after a very good performance in his last couple of starts for the Cardinals. However, they have struggled to move the chains consistently through the air as teams double team Larry Fitzgerald and try and force the Cardinals to look elsewhere. The Dolphins have allowed over 300 yards per game through the air, but they are holding teams to under 53% completion rate and they can generate a pass rush that should force Kolb to rush the ball out of his hands.

A lot of pressure will be on Kolb, because the Cardinals are not going to be able to run the ball against this Dolphins Defense. Miami have held teams to 2.5 yards per game this season and have faced the likes of Darren McFadden, Arian Foster and Shonn Greene, while Arizona have struggled to run the ball all season at just 2.8 yards per carry.

With Kolb in obvious passing situations and some 3rd and longs, it will be time for the likes of Cameron Wake to pin back their ears and get after him.

Head to Head

Being in opposite Conferences means the teams only meet once in four years unless they happen to come across one another in the SuperBowl.

The last time they played was also here in the desert as Arizona crushed Miami by 21 points to cover the 6.5 points.

Arizona have won the last 2 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread.

Other Interesting Trends

Arizona are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games.

Miami have won their last 7 games against the spread when playing teams with a winning record.

They are also 21-5 against the spread in their last 26 games at teams with a winning home record.

Prediction

I know a lot of people are going to be on Arizona in this one as the team winning games and at less than a touchdown, but I like the Miami Dolphins to keep it close for the following reasons:

First, this is a tough spot for the Cardinals as they had a big Conference win over Philadelphia last week and play Divisional rivals St Louis on the road on a short week on Thursday night. It is conceivable that they overlooked the Dolphins and may be a little flat in this game as they take it 'easy'.

Second, Miami have played far better than people may think- beyond that loss to Houston, Miami could have won both games against Oakland and the New York Jets, while the Defense can definitely pose problems for the Arizona Offense.

Third, I backed Arizona as the home dog last week against Philadelphia, but the expectation levels has increased with 3 wins out of 3 and they are just 1-5-2 against the spread as the home favourite.

Fourth, the Dolphins are 20-8-1 as the road underdog and are usually under-estimated in this spot.

The Statistics :

ARIZONA CARDINALS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-23	W	27-6	H v Philadelphia Eagles
	2012-09-09	W	20-16	H v Seattle Seahawks
	2012-01-01	W	23-20	H v Seattle Seahawks
	2011-12-18	W	20-17	H v Cleveland Browns
	2011-12-11	W	21-19	H v San Francisco 49Ers
	2011-12-04	W	19-13	H v Dallas Cowboys

MIAMI DOLPHINS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-09-09	L	30-10	A v Houston Texans
	2011-12-24	L	27-24	A v New England Patriots
	2011-12-18	W	23-30	A v Buffalo Bills
	2011-11-24	L	20-19	A v Dallas Cowboys
	2011-11-06	W	3-31	A v Kansas City Chiefs
	2011-10-30	L	20-17	A v New York Giants

HEAD TO HEAD ARIZONA CARDINALS v MIAMI DOLPHINS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2008-09-14	Arizona Cardinals	31-10	Miami Dolphins
1996-09-08	Arizona Cardinals	10-38	Miami Dolphins
1984-09-30	Arizona Cardinals	28-36	Miami Dolphins