NCAA Football
2012-09-29 - Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Bulldogs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Week 5
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
This is a big game between two teams from the SEC East who will believe they can win this Division and get to play in the National Championship Game. The Georgia Bulldogs (4-0) have been comfortable in their wins so far and are going to get a boost on the Defensive side of the ball, while the Tennessee Volunteers (3-1) need a win more than their opponents.
That is because the Volunteers are actually 0-1 in the SEC this season following yet another defeat to the Florida Gators. If they lose again and fall to 0-2 in the Conference, it will be tough for Tennessee to recover, particularly as Georgia are already 2-0 in the Conference.
Georgia opened the season with some serious suspensions handed down to players in their much vaunted Defense and they could be restoring Bacarri Rambo and Alex Ogletree to the starting line up after they both were out for the first 4 games. That will make it even tougher for Tennessee to move the ball with consistency and challenge the Bulldogs.
The Volunteers have put up 341 passing yards per game so far this season as Tyler Bray looks to break school single season passing records but he was held to almost 100 yards less than that in a loss to Florida earlier this season and Georgia are a better Defense in my opinion. Bray will certainly have some success throwing the ball, but his Offensive Line is going to need to be at their best as the Bulldogs certainly generate pressure on Quarter Backs.
Bray will also want to stay out of obvious passing situations so the Georgia pass rush can't just tee off on him, but it will be tough to get things going on the ground. Georgia are holding teams to 3.4 yards per carry this season so it could be tough for Rajion Neal to get too much going and the Volunteers won't want to fall behind and be forced to throw to keep up.
If you like Quarter Backs, you will also be pleased to see Aaron Murray lining up behind Center for the Bulldogs and Murray is having an effective season as he already has over 1000 passing yards with 10 touchdown passes and just 2 interceptions. The Offensive Line has protected Murray and I think he will get enough time to attack this Secondary when he needs to, especially as the Volunteers are giving up 228 yards per game through the air.
I said Murray would get enough time 'when he needs to' as the Bulldogs could literally be handing the ball off to Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall and allowing them to pick up huge chunks on the ground. That does look possible as Georgia are going at 6 yards per carry, while the Volunteers struggled to stop Florida doing what they want on the ground and are allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the season.
If Tennessee struggle to stop the run, this will open up the play-action pass for Murray, while also giving him a little more time when throwing the ball as the Volunteers sell out on defending the rush.
Head to Head
Georgia have won 2 games in a row in the series, both straight up and against the spread, against Tennessee including an 8 point win on the road last season.
The Bulldogs beat Tennessee by 27 points a couple of years ago here and they have won 2 in a row at home in the series.
However, Tennessee are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games at Georgia while going 5-3 against the spread in the last 8 in the series overall.
Other Interesting Trends
Georgia are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games at home.
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games in Conference play.
Tennessee are now 1-7-1 against the spread in their last 9 games against Conference rivals.
Prediction
I am going to back the Georgia Bulldogs to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I do know that the Bulldogs have a huge game on deck as they face South Carolina on the road next week, while Tennessee do have a bye, but the return of a full strength Defense should see them motivated to put out a big statement ahead of the game against the Gamecocks.
Second, anyone who saw what Florida did to Tennessee in their game earlier this season should appreciate that SEC Defenses are tougher than the non-Conference games the Volunteers are winning. Georgia arguably have the better Defense than the Gators and should have more success shutting down the Vols in this one.
Third, Tennessee have really struggled in Conference play as shown by their 1-7-1 record against the spread, while Georgia are 7-3-1 against the spread in games against Conference rivals.
The Pick :
Georgia Bulldogs 37-20 Tennessee Volunteers
