NCAA Football
2012-09-29 - Missouri Tigers at UCF Knights
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Week 5
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 12pm
5pm (British Time)
Preview
The Missouri Tigers (2-2) have had a rude awakening in the SEC this season, but they can put those games aside for the moment as they travel to Florida to take on the UCF Knights (2-1).
Missouri are 0-2 in the SEC this season after being taken apart in South Carolina last week following an earlier loss to Georgia in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. While the Tigers are already in the midst of Conference play, the UCF Knights will be beginning their Conference USA schedule next week.
This game could be a tough Defensive battle as both sides have the stronger unit on that side of the ball when matched against these Offenses.
The Tigers and Kendial Lawrence should have more success on the ground this week after struggling at South Carolina last week, although their 3.9 yards per carry is not an overly impressive number. However, Missouri will need to establish the run so James Franklin can be protected behind an Offensive Line that has struggled and is coming against a Knights Defense that does get to the Quarter Back.
UCF have only allowed 188 passing yards per game so far this season and they are keeping the completion rate to under 58% and that is going to make it tough for Franklin to continue to move the chains through the air, especially if the shoulder injury that kept him out in Week 3 is not fully healthy after the beating the Gamecocks put on him last week.
A problem for the Knights when they have the ball is going to be trying to move the ball on the ground. Latavius Murray is still doubtful, while the Missouri Tigers are allowing just 3 yards per carry on the season and that means the pressure will shift to Blake Borles and his arm.
Borles has thrown 9 touchdowns this season, which is an impressive number, but the 5 interceptions he has thrown has to be concern as losing the turnover battle could kill Central Florida in this game. The Tigers do give up a high completion percentage through the air, but they have been able to make a few big plays on the Defensive side of the ball so Borles has to be careful.
Missouri can generate an effective pass rush so the UCF Knights Offensive Line will be tested in this one, especially if they are in obvious passing situations if they don't get things moving on the ground.
Head to Head
This will be the first meeting between the schools.
Other Interesting Trends
The UCF Knights are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 home games.
Missouri are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games.
Prediction
This is a really close game between two Defenses that could dominate the game, but I am going to back the home side to pick up a big win for the following reasons:
First, Missouri are not in a great spot here as they travel to a non-Conference school who they have never played before as the meat in the SEC sandwich after facing South Carolina last week and hosting Vanderbilt next week. My question is how focused can they be on this game?
Second, UCF had a bye last week so they have been able to get ready for this game for two weeks. They should have extra motivation as they get to play a big name school, even though the Knights do open Conference USA play next week.
Third, the Knights are usually a solid home favourite and they are 12-6 against the spread in this spot over the last few seasons, while they are 12-7 against the spread against non-Conference schools.
The Pick :
UCF Knights 20-17 Missouri Tigers
