NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - LOUISVILLE @ SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

NCAA Football

2012-09-29 - Louisville at Southern Mississippi

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

#19 LOUISVILLE @ SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, September 29th, 2012, 8:00PM (1:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

So Louisville, a team we have made some money off this month, are looking to go 5-0 with a win against Southern Mississippi, who are 10 point underdogs. The last 5 meetings have been won by Louisville's Cardinals, and I think they should trounce them here once again.

I spoke in a previous preview about Louisville's ability to go on long drives, not relying on a big pass to gain yardage, which shows the ability to constantly move the chains. Teddy Bridgewater continues to be excellent as the QB, and despite throwing 2 interceptions against FIU he is still tops in the Big East with a 74% completion record and throwing for 1,050 yards and 7 TDs.

I think it is good Bridgewater had that off day and threw picks, because when kids are playing lights out it's hard to keep it up and concentration does slip. After his mistakes, he will likely concentrate more and we should get a game that has barely any mistakes. Looking at the numbers it seems he has a wide array of players to throw the ball to, almost double figures picking up 7 or more receptions and 6 different players catching TD passes.

Southern Mississippi are 0-3 and are not about to start winning here. They'll do well to stay within single figures. In every department they are near the bottom of the league. The Golden Eagles are 115th in total offence, 116 in passing offence and 113th in scoring offence. Defence? Also rubbish. Rushing defence is 111th and total and scoring defence rank 104th.

And just when you thought they couldn't get any worse, Southern Mississippi have injuries to their 1st and 2nd choice QBs, which means they are playing 3rd string Ricky Lloyd, a freshman. The ground game isn't much use, as the only 2 TDs they have run in were by Alford, one of the QB's who is injured. They've got no chance.

BETTING VERDICT

having stumbled a bit against Florida International, I expect Bridgewater and the rest of his Louisville team to be sharper and a lot tighter, and that means a win of double figures, at least 2 TDs.

The Pick :