NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - BALL STATE @ KENT STATE

NCAA Football

2012-09-29 - Ball State at Kent State

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

BALL STATE @ KENT STATE
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, September 29th, 2012, 12:00PM (5:00PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

I hope you're paying attention because in the last 2 weeks I've been signing the praises of and picking Ball State with the points over BCS teams and they've only gone and won both games outright. Indiana fell a couple of weeks ago and then it was South Florida's turn last week. The Cardinals are the real deal, and they are in town to play Kent State.

Kent State are 2-1 now, having knocked off Buffalo 23-7 in their MAC opener. It's been their defence that has impressed so far, holding Buffalo to just 265 total yards and just 113 through the air. That unit will however be tested by a Ball State offence that has faced superior defences than theirs.

Ball State are 3-1 and boast a rushing attack that is the best in the conference, so right there Kent State have their hands full. QB Keith Wenning has now thrown for over 5,000 yards in his career, only the 4th player in the school's history to manage that. His completion rate of over 61% and the 861 yards and 5 TDs give me confidence that they can balance out the attack and make life tough for what has so far been a decent but not properly tested Kent State D.

So why the small spread if Ball State are so bloody good? Well, their defence isn't really exciting anyone, because they've been winning games by scoring more than they allow. The game against Indiana is a good example. Ball State are giving up 36 points per game and about 495 yards per game. But, they are now going to face a Kent State offence that is ranked 93rd and his gaining just 360 yards per game, much less than their own 38rd ranked offence that gains 457 yards.

If this turns into a shootout, and I think it just might, I give Ball State the edge.

BETTING VERDICT

I have a niggling doubt in the back of my head, saying Ball State might just have a tiny letdown and win this but fail to cover, but I'm going to ignore the ML bet and take the spread anyway because it is under 3 points and I have them edging this by a score, so between 3-7 points.

The Pick :