NCAA Football
2012-09-29 - Minnesota at Iowa
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, September 29th, 2012, 12:00PM (5:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Minnesota open their Big Ten campaign against long time rivals Iowa, a bit miffed they have not got a ranking yet after their blistering 4-0 start. They have already racked up 119 points worth of offence, something they didn't manage until their 7th game last season. I don't see how they are underdogs of 7 points here in a game I have them winning.
Iowa have started 2-2 and both losses have come at home, which is a worry. Iowa State edged them 9-6 in early September and they were beaten last week by Central Michigan, who kicked a last second 47 yard FG to take it 32-31. That will be hard to recover from for these guys, and while they will be pumped, they're college kids, and the psychological effects will show.
Minnesota have the h2h edge winning 61 of their 105 meetings, including last years close 22-21 finish. Minnesota's offence looks even better than last year, and averaging over 30 points per game and over 400 total yards per contest they will be tough for Iowa to stop. QB MarQueis Gray has been solid but Max Shortell was used against Syracuse and threw a very good game, so really they have cracking options between either.
The Minnesota Gophers defence have been particularly good against the run, allowing just 128 yards on average, and are restricting opponents to just 16 points per game. They have forced 10 turnovers already and know how to get after opposing QBs. Iowa QB James Vanderberg will not do well here, with his 75 passes so far netting just 1 TD.
Iowa has scored on a decent % of their trips to the red zone but not many TDs, so they do get stopped. Minnesota has the kind of team that will get them to turn it over and stop drives in places that make it easier for them to march it down themselves, and like I said, it's crazy that they are underdogs of 7 points.
Both teams are off next week so they should really give it their all, although Iowa look mismatched to me.
BETTING VERDICT
With a whole TD worth of points, I'm going to take Minnesota
The Pick :
Minnesota with the points
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Minnesota +7 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
