NFL Football
2012-09-27 - Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Thursday 27 September 2012 - Kick Off 8:20pm
1:20am (British Time)
Preview
The AFC North looks like a Division that the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) can win for a second season in succession, although they need to keep winning their Divisional games if they are to do so. The Ravens have already crushed the Cincinnati Bengals here this season as they get ready to host the Cleveland Browns (0-3) who are struggling as expected.
Baltimore are looking to change their identity on the Offensive side of the ball so they have been working with many more no-huddle situations and they also showed their character by coming back from a fourth quarter deficit to beat the New Englad Patriots on Sunday night.
The Ravens should have plenty of success moving the chains in this game as they have a decent balance in their Offense. Ray Rice has perhaps not had as many touches as expected so far in this season, but he and the Ravens are moving the ball at 5.1 yards per carry on the ground and are coming up against a Browns Defense that haven't been able to lock down backs this season and were going to be crushed on the ground by CJ Spiller last week before he was injured.
With Baltimore likely being able to move the ball at will on the ground, Joe Flacco should have enough protection to carve up the Secondary that is still missing Joe Haden through suspension. The Browns are allowing 269 yards per game through the air and they are going to have a tough time defending all the receiving options Flacco has.
Cleveland picked up Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson in the first round of the NFL Draft last April, but the former is not getting the respect of Defensive Co-Ordinators in the NFL and that is making life much tougher for the latter.
Weeden is really struggling to find consistency in the passing game- he has thrown for an average of over 200 yards per game, but the more pressing concern will be the fact he has 3 touchdown passes to 6 interceptions so far.
The receiving cast is already a disappointment, but they will also be missing Mohamed Massaquoi and Alex Smith and it could be tough for Cleveland to get things going with consistency. The Offensive Line has struggled to protect the Quarter Back and they will have a tough time keeping the Ravens off Weeden and I don't think he will be able to expose the Baltimore Secondary unless Richardson can get going.
Richardson has a couple of rushing touchdowns to his name, but the Browns 4.5 yards per carry are going to be tested by Baltimore's 3.3 yards per carry being given up. I imagine Baltimore will load the box and force Weeden to beat them through the air so I don't imagine Richardson going off in this one.
Head to Head
Baltimore have dominated the recent series, winning 8 in a row and they are also 7-2 against the spread in that time.
The Ravens have won 4 in a row at home, although they are 2-2 against the spread in those games. However, Cleveland have covered the spread in their last 2 games here in Baltimore.
Other Interesting Trends
Baltimore are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 home games.
They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against teams with losing records.
The Ravens are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against Divisional rivals.
Cleveland are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games.
They are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games against teams from the AFC North.
Prediction
I have been thinking about this game for a couple of days and have decided the points are too much and will be backing Cleveland to cover the spread in a losing effort. Hopefully this will be the last game where the replacement referees will be involved and I like Cleveland for the following reasons:
First, I know I have spoken about how tough it will be for Cleveland to move the chains, but they should be extra motivated for a Divisional game and have at least played Baltimore tough in recent meetings.
Second, Baltimore are coming off an emotional win over New England when they had to put in a huge fourth quarter effort to win the game and that was the late game on Sunday night. They might be a little flat to start this game and that could make covering double digits that much tougher for them.
Third, Baltimore have not played well as the home favourite within the Division, going 2-6-1 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons. Cleveland are 6-3-1 against the spread as the road underdog within the Division in the same time period.
Fourth, Cleveland are a solid double digit underdog, going 7-2 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons. That includes going 4-1 against the spread as a double digit dog against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Ravens are also 1-7 against the spread as a double digit favourite in their last 8 games in this spot.
There is every chance I could look an utter fool at the end of this one, but there are too many trends pointing to the underdog who I think may easily have been looking beyond Buffalo to put in a huge effort against a potentially flat Baltimore. The short week doesn't help their cause, but they have played their Divisional rivals tough, including Cincinnati earlier this season, but I will keep my stakes to a minimum for this pick.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Baltimore Ravens 24-14 Cleveland Browns
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Cleveland Browns +12 Points @ 1.96
