NFL Football
2012-09-24 - Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 3
Monday 24 September 2012 - Kick Off 8:30pm
1:30am (British Time)
Preview
Monday Night Football is a big Conference battle between the Seattle Seahawks (1-1) and the Green Bay Packers (1-1) and neither side will want to lose to drop behind in their respective Divisions. Seattle will know that Arizona and San Francisco both have winning records, while Green Bay can move back to the top of the NFC North with a win.
It has been a tough start for the Packers as they have faced two tough Defenses in San Francisco and Chicago and it won't be much easier today as the Seahawks have one of the most under-rated Defenses in the NFL.
Seattle have a big Secondary that can match up against the pass, but this is a tough task against the Packers that have as many weapons as they do. Greg Jennings is back today and Green Bay can regularly send out 4 receiver sets that will be tough for Seattle to cover completely. The Seahawks haven't generated an effective pass rush, so Aaron Rodgers may just get a little more time than he has in the first two weeks of the season and he should get things done as long as his supporting cast stopping dropping passes.
Even if Seattle decide they will bring more men into coverage, it may give Cedric Benson a chance on the ground. Seattle are holding teams to 2.6 yards per carry so far this season, but Benson may have a little more room than usual if the Seahawks are concentrating on stopping Rodgers.
Green Bay's Defense was terrible in week 1, but much improved against the Bears in week 2 and it will be interesting to see which unit shows up here. They have struggled to hold teams down against the run going back to last season, so I would expect Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks to be very effective on the ground as long as this game is close or Seattle are leading.
If the game does start getting away from Seattle, it will mean a lot of pressure on Russell Wilson, the rookie Quarter Back. He has the ability to scramble out of the pocket and will need all that mobility behind the Offensive Line which struggles to block the pass rush, an area that may be highlighted with the way Clay Matthews and Green Bay's Defense has performed so far this season.
Green Bay already have 11 sacks on the season and I expect they will get penetration in the backfield if Seattle are in obvious passing situations. Wilson will also have to be careful of the ball-hawking ability of the Packers, while Green Bay should be successful in defending the pass.
However, I would be expecting Russell Wilson to speak to Matt Flynn, who was at Green Bay as a backup in recent seasons, to get any reads into the Defensive schemes the Packers may employ in certain spots.
Head to Head
Green Bay crushed Seattle by 38 points in their last meeting in 2009 and they are now 6-1 in the last 7 games and they have won 3 in a row.
The Packers also won their last meeting here in Seattle back in 2008 by 10 points.
Green Bay are 4-1-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series and they have covered in 3 straight.
Other Interesting Trends
Seattle are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 home games.
They are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games against Conference rivals.
Green Bay are 23-10 against the spread in their last 33 games.
Prediction
This is a really tough game to call as Seattle are seriously under-rated... However, I like the Green Bay Packers to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the line looks short based on what Seattle did against Dallas last week... Put another way, should the Cowboys be rated at the same level as the Packers? Not in my opinion.
Second, Green Bay's Offense should be able to keep the chains moving with some level of consistency as they have a lot of weapons while the return of Greg Jennings is huge. On the other hand, I am expecting Seattle to have some success but they could have more problems if they are forced to throw to keep up.
Third, the turnover battle can be huge in these close games and I just feel the Packers are the more likely to win that category with their ball-hawking Secondary and those extra possessions may make all the difference.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Seattle Seahawks 13-20 Green Bay Packers
