NFL Football
2012-09-23 - San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 3
Sunday 23 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
It would be incredibly foolish to anoint teams as 'the best in the NFL' on a two game sample, but the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) look as complete as any team out there on both sides of the ball. Wins over two teams that made the NFC Play Offs last season are impressive as they look to complete three wins in a row against the NFC North following wins over Green Bay and Detroit.
The 49ers will be travelling to the Minnesota Vikings (1-1) this week, although the Vikings will not have played anyone like San Francisco so far with their first two games being against Jacksonville and Indianapolis.
It does look like a tough match up for the Minnesota Offense as their best player, Adrian Peterson, has a really tough match up in front of him. Peterson has played well off his ACL injury, but the 49ers are giving up just 3.2 yards per game on the ground and they will look to shut this option down and force Christian Ponder to win the game using his arm.
That won't be easy for Ponder as he continues to play behind an Offensive Line that is needing rebuilding and San Francisco will send the hounds after him whenever he is in obvious passing situations or in 3rd and long spots. The Packers and Lions have found ways to move the ball through the air, but Ponder doesn't have a lot of weapons outside of Percy Harvin and it is going to be tough for Minnesota to get anything going consistently.
San Francisco will use their balanced Offense to move the chains when they have the ball and that will begin with their rushing game that has provided 5.7 yards per carry to open the season. While Minnesota have been pretty stout against the run, this Offensive Line is as good as any at opening holes so I expect the 49ers to have some success running the ball.
Alex Smith will then look to his large array of weapons in the passing game to keep the chains moving and the Quarter Back has been very efficient to open the season. He hasn't turned the ball over and should be able to find holes in the Secondary that has been torched by Blaine Gabbert and Andrew Luck already this season.
Minnesota can slow the 49ers down with a pass rush against an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect Smith so far this season, but I still expect San Francisco to move the chains with some regularity in this one.
Head to Head
Minnesota beat San Francisco by 3 points here in their last meeting back in 2009, although it was the 49ers that covered the spread.
The Vikings are 4-1 in the last 5 games of this series, although they are 3-2 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Minnesota have lost their last 5 games against the spread at home.
San Francisco are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games against teams from the NFC.
Prediction
The line looks too tempting, but I am going to bite on San Francisco to win and cover in this game for the following reasons:
First, Jim Harbaugh will not want his side to relax here and they should be fully focused against a Conference rival with AFC New York Jets on deck.
Second, it may actually be the Minnesota Vikings that are a little more unfocused as they have a big Divisional game at Detroit next on their schedule.
Third, the Vikings are 1-5-1 against the spread as the home underdog, while San Francisco are 11-2-1 against the spread in Conference games under Harbaugh.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Minnesota Vikings 10-24 San Francisco 49ers
