NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - Oregon State at UCLA Bruins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
This is a PAC-12 match up between two unbeaten teams as the UCLA Bruins (3-0) host the Oregon State Beavers (1-0). The Bruins would have seen rivals USC fall to a defeat last week which could open the door for them in the South Division, while Oregon State are in the tougher North section and have the likes of Stanford and local rivals Oregon to knock off to have a chance of playing in the Conference Championship Game.
Both of these teams will be feeling good about themselves as they have knocked off some of the best the Big Ten have been able to offer as UCLA have beaten Nebraska and Oregon State have beaten Wisconsin in their only game of the season.
The Bruins have been the epitome of a balance Offense early in the season as they have averaged 310 yards through the air and 311 yards on the ground.
Brett Hundley took off his Red Shirt to start at Quarter Back and is playing far more effectively than can usually be expected of a freshman. He will test the Oregon State pass Defense that held Wisconsin to under 200 yards in their opening game, although Hundley will still rely on Jonathan Franklin to help keep the pass rush off him behind his Offensive Line.
Franklin will likely do better than Montee Bell did for Wisconsin as the Offensive Line are opening far bigger holes than the Badgers are doing. UCLA have averaged 6.3 yards per carry so far this season and their balanced Offense will make it tough for Oregon State to sell out on the pass or the rush and so the Bruins should be able to get a lot more Offense going than Wisconsin did.
On the other side of the ball, the Bruins Defense has been pretty good against the pass, but they have really had a hard time holding teams down when they rush the ball. The problem for the Beavers could be that they don't match up that well against UCLA as they are better passers than rushers when it comes to their Offense.
Sean Mannion played really well against Wisconsin, but this could be an even tougher challenge as the Bruins are not just getting plenty of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back, but they are also creating turnovers having picked off 7 interceptions in their 3 games.
That means the Beavers could put the workload on Malcolm Agnew to run the ball, but Oregon State struggled last season to open holes for their Backs, while Wisconsin bottled up this point of attack. If Agnew can't get it going, Mannion could be pressured back into the QB that threw 18 interceptions last season and that could make this a long day in the office.
Head to Head
UCLA have won the last two meetings in the series which includes an 8 point win on the road last season.
In fact, the Bruins are 7-2 in the last 9 games in the series and they have gone 8-1 against the spread in those games.
The Bruins are 3-1 at the Rose Bowl both straight up and against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
UCLA have covered the spread in their last 5 games at home.
However, they are 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 games against Conference rivals.
Oregon State are 15-6-1 against the spread in their last 22 games on the road.
Prediction
I am going to back the UCLA Bruins to continue their recent dominance of this series and back them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Bruins do seem to match up very well against the Oregon State Offense and their own balance Offense should be able to have more success moving the chains in this contest.
Second, the recent series has been dominated by the Bruins winning 8 of the last 9 against the spread.
The Pick :
UCLA Bruins 31-17 Oregon State
