NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - USF Bulls at Ball State Cardinals
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 4:30pm
9:30pm (British Time)
Preview
The USF Bulls (2-1) just can't seem to get a hand on how to win games with consistency in the Big East and they fell to their first Conference loss of the season 10 days ago against Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Now they head to Indiana in a bid to get back on track as they face the Ball State Cardinals (2-1) coming off an in-State win despite being out-gained by over 100 yards.
South Florida looked to be the best team in the Big East this season, but it is going to be a tough ask for them to take home the title after that loss to Rutgers. However, they can console themselves with the fact the winner of the Conference over the last couple of seasons has lost 2 games in each year so the Bulls are not out of anything in September.
BJ Daniels will be running the Offense again this week and he should have a remarkable level of success against a porous Ball State Defense that is allowing an average of 327 passing yards this season. Daniels himself is averaging 318 yards per game through the air and he should be able to keep the chains moving throughout the 60 minutes.
The biggest concern for him will be turnovers having already been intercepted 4 times this season, but the Cardinals are yet to record one and they don't have a fierce pass rush so I am expecting Daniels to have some time and to be able to pick apart the Secondary.
The Quarter Back can also run with the ball and he, along with Demetris Murray should be able to keep the Offense in short and manageable situations against the Cardinals who are giving up 4.5 yards per carry this season so far.
To keep up, the Cardinals are going to be heavily reliant on Jahwan Edwards to continue his fine start to the new season from the backfield. Edwards has helped the team to 5.4 yards per carry and he has already recorded 4 touchdown scores to his name and he will be going against a solid Defensive Line for South Florida that has allowed just 3.4 yards per carry.
Ball State will need Edwards at his best to make sure Keith Wenning is kept in short and manageable situations from the Quarter Back position. Wenning has done what is needed from him and he hasn't turned the ball over too many times to keep the Ball State Offense rolling. However, any obvious passing situations could spell trouble as South Florida are getting to the Quarter Back regularly.
The Bulls have also given up less than 220 yards through the air this season, although they too are yet to pick up an interception.
Head to Head
This is only the second meeting between the schools after they played in Tampa last season- on that occasion, South Florida were comfortable 30 point winners and easily covered the 20 point spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Ball State are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games.
They are 17-7 against the spread in their last 24 non-Conference games.
However, the Cardinals are 4-15 against the spread in their last 19 at home.
South Florida are 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games.
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games.
Prediction
I am going for South Florida to pick up the win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, both schools are coming off emotional games and both have a big game on deck- however, USF have had longer to get ready for this game and I think that will give them the edge.
Second, I think USF are far more talented than Ball State on both sides of the ball and they have the Quarter Back that can really expose the Secondary issues the Cardinals are having.
Third, the Cardinals are just 2-6 against the spread in the last three seasons when considered the home underdog.
Fourth, Ball State are also 0-3 when hosting BCS schools and the losses have come by an average of 12 points per game.
The Pick :
Ball State Cardinals 21-34 USF Bulls
