NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - South Alabama at Mississippi State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 7pm
Midnight (British Time)
Preview
This should be one-way traffic on Saturday evening as the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0) of the SEC take on the South Alabama Jaguars (1-2) who are a school that has just moved from the FCS into the Sun Belt Conference.
Tyler Russell should have some real success for the Bulldogs from the Quarter Back position and he has thrown 8 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in this early portion of the new season. Russell has been well protected by his Offensive Line which will need to be at their best against the South Alabama pass rush that has generated 10 sacks already this season.
The Jaguars have only allowed 3.4 yards per carry in the early going, but they could have a much tougher time against this Offensive Line which has opened up holes for 5.2 yards per carry and I fully expect Mississippi State to keep the chains moving throughout the 60 minutes of the game.
They also have the big playmaker in Chad Bumphis that can help organise quick-strike touchdowns for the Bulldogs too so it could be the toughest test South Alabama will have had so far this season.
On the other side of the ball, South Alabama are expected to really struggle in this contest. They don't have a set Quarter Back and they have barely averaged over 300 yards per game so far this season against much weaker opposition than Mississippi State. The Jaguars are struggling to run the ball, while they have been turning the ball over too which all amounts to a tough day in the office.
Mississippi State already have 12 turnovers this season and I would expect them to add at least 2-3 more in this one and the extra possessions will aid them further in the game. South Alabama's Offensive Line has really struggled in the step up in competition this season and I think the Quarter Back, whoever it is, is going to be scrambling around for much of the evening.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the schools.
Other Interesting Trends
Mississippi State are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against non-Conference schools.
They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the Mississippi State Bulldogs to cover this very large spread for the following reasons:
First, Mississippi State have a bye week after this one so they can fully concentrate on the South Alabama Jaguars and allow their Offense to have their way with them.
Second, South Alabama have a Conference game next on slate so could be looking beyond this game as it is likely more about the money the school picks up than a genuine belief they can do anything productive.
Third, I believe Mississippi State are capable of putting up at least 40 points in this one and I don't think the South Alabama Offense are capable of doing anything against the toughest Defense they will face this season.
Fourth, this is also the second successive road game against a superior team for South Alabama who may not be able to raise their level twice in a row after a decent effort at North Carolina State last week.
The Pick :
Mississippi State 44-7 South Alabama
