NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - Kentucky Wildcats at Florida Gators
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 12:21pm
5:21pm (British Time)
Preview
There weren't many experts that tipped the Florida Gators (3-0) to win the SEC East this season, but they have put in two very good performances within the Conference already to think they will be in the mix to play in the SEC Championship Game. They host the Kentucky Wildcats (1-2) in a third straight Conference game after the Wildcats were stunned in a home loss to Western Kentucky last week.
It will be interesting to see how the Gators respond after playing those two tough road games at Texas A&M and Tennessee in back to back weeks, although Kentucky's Head Coach Joker Phillips is perhaps under even more pressure with rumours beginning to do the rounds that he will be replaced sooner rather than later.
Jeff Driskel won the starting Quarter Back job for Florida in the off-season and he has been playing efficiently although only throwing 3 touchdown passes with zero interceptions through the first three weeks of the season. He is coming off his best performance of the season against Tennessee when he threw for over 200 yards through the air and rushing for 80+ yards.
I expect the Quarter Back will be able to have some real success against this Kentucky pass Defense, although he may lean on his running game to slow down a pass rush that has generated almost 3 sacks per game so far. The Florida Offensive Line has given up a number of sacks early in the season, but Driskel could get more time as I expect the running lanes to be dominated by the Gators.
Kentucky have been giving up 4.2 yards per game, but they haven't faced a SEC team and Florida are moving at 5.2 yards per clip. Mike Gillislee has been excellent at pounding the ball early this season and I also expect Trey Burton to get his touches- between these two players, I think Florida will be comfortable moving the chains and it will open the passing opportunities for Driskel.
The Wildcats have been wildly inconsistent on Offense this season and they are now coming up against the best Defense they will have seen so far. Maxwell Smith may have the most passing yards in the SEC, but he is coming off a 4 interception performance against Western Kentucky that ultimately cost the Wildcats the game and this figures to be even tougher.
It could be tough for Smith as both Raymond Sanders and Jonathan George will struggle to get anything consistent going on the ground. Kentucky are going at 4.7 yards per carry this season, but the Gators have limited better teams to just 3.4 yards per carry and that means there will be even more pressure on the Quarter Back.
With Kentucky possibly finding themselves in 3rd and long situations, the Florida pass rush could have a big day against their Offensive Line in this one.
Head to Head
To say Florida have dominated the recent series would be an understatement as they have in fact won 25 in a row, the longest streak in the nation.
The Gators have won 5 in a row against the spread and the last 4 wins have come by at least 34 points per game.
Kentucky have lost 16 in a row at Florida, losing by 25 points per game.
Other Interesting Trends
Florida are just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against Conference rivals.
They are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games at home.
Kentucky are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games on the road.
Prediction
I am going to back the Florida Gators to come out with another big performance and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Florida have absolutely dominated the series and have crushed Kentucky 4 times in a row, comfortably covering the spread on each occasion.
Second, the Gators have had two big road wins in the Conference and are going into a bye after this game so they can fully focus on dismantling Kentucky before getting two weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers.
Third, Joker Phillips is under real pressure in Kentucky and his team are just 2-7 against the spread as the road underdog since he took over as Head Coach.
Fourth, Kentucky are off an emotional loss to in-State rivals Western Kentucky and I feel Florida have a distinct advantage on both sides of the ball.
The Pick :
Florida Gators 44-17 Kentucky Wildcats
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Florida Gators - 24 Points @ 2.00
