NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - Rutgers at Arkansas Razorbacks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 7pm
Midnight (British Time)
Preview
The new season was always going to be a tough one for the talented Arkansas Razorbacks (1-2) as they lost Head Coach Bobby Petrino, but no one would have expected them to have a losing record after the first three weeks.
Arkansas face the Big East's Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) who are unbeaten and coming off a big road win in their Conference over the South Florida Bulls.
After a standard win to open the season, things started spiralling out of control for Arkansas the second they let the ULM Warhawks just hang around long enough to take advantage of an injury suffered by Quarter Back Tyler Wilson. With Wilson out of the game, ULM forced overtime before recording a huge upset win.
That injury also cost Wilson his starting place against Alabama last week as the Razorbacks made some big mistakes early to let the game get away from them as they were blanked by the National Champions and already face a huge task in the SEC West.
Wilson has actually been cleared to play this week and Head Coach John Smith indicated that there is a real buzz in the locker room to right the perceived wrongs of the last couple of weeks. The Quarter Back may be used to going up against some of the best Defenses in the nation in the SEC, but this is going be another tough test for him and the rest of the Offense.
That is mainly down to the fact that Rutgers, who had an overhaul in the Coaching staff in the off-season, have been really tough on Defense in their opening three games and can really attribute their early success to this unit. However, this Razorback Offense is as good a unit as the Scarlet Knights would have seen so far this season.
I am expecting Wilson to have some success through the air as the pass Defense is the Rutgers' weakness. My concern would be the protection Wilson is getting as the Razorbacks are allowing an average of 2 sacks per game, while Rutgers do generate a decent pass rush.
Arkansas have struggled to run the ball as Knile Davis is having a hard time since coming off his injury and is only going at 3.5 yards per carry. With Rutgers only giving up 2.1 yards per carry, a lot of the Offensive work load is going to be on Wilson's back.
If the Razorbacks can get things going on the Offensive side of the ball, it may be a tough ask for the Rutgers Offense to do the same with an SEC Defense in front of them. A lot of the pressure will be on Jawan Jamison, but he may have a little harder time getting room on the ground against a Defense that has given up 3.7 yards per carry so far this season.
The bigger problem for the Razorbacks has been defending the pass, although I wouldn't be entirely comfortable if the game was going to be on Gary Nova's shoulders. However, if the Scarlet Knights can offer Nova the protection he has been given early this season, he should be able to find enough completions to get the chains moving.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the schools as they play the first of a home and home series with the game taking place in Rutgers next season.
Other Interesting Trends
Arkansas are 20-6 against the spread in their last 26 games at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the Arkansas Razorbacks to win the game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the team will have a huge emotional boost from the fact that Tyler Wilson is back to Quarter Back the team and they will want to give their home fans something to get excited about before returning to SEC action next week.
Second, the Razorbacks didn't bounce back effectively from a loss last time out, but they are 4-1 against the spread in this spot over the last couple of seasons.
Third, Arkansas are also 10-4 against the spread over the last couple of seasons when set as the home favourite.
The Pick :
Arkansas Razorbacks 27-17 Rutgers
