NCAA Football
2012-09-21 - Baylor at ULM
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Friday, September 21st, 2012, 8:00PM (1:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
ULM are now 1-1 for the season, but what an amazing 1-1 it is. The Warhawks sprung the biggest upset in their opener, taking down #9 Arkansas in OT, 34-31. They followed that up with another big comeback, from 21 points down to take Auburn to OT too, eventually losing 31-28! This is a dog that has a massive bite!
Baylor is on an 8 game winning streak dating back to last season, when they had one Robert Girffin III as QB. He's gone, but the team has kept winning, posting a 2-0 mark so far. Those wins came against SMU and Sam Houston State, with a week's bye between them. They've racked up 575 yards of offence on average those two games, scoring a very impressive looking 107 points combined, but last week, after their bye, they looked sluggish against FCS team Sam Houston State, which is a red flag.
They won 48-23 but they were 20-10 down at the half, which is a worry. New QB Nick Florence threw for 312 yards and 3 TDs but why didn't this happen earlier. And what if it happens here, because for all the talk about them turning it on when they needed to, the fact remains ULM know a thing or two about turning it on in the 2nd half too, and against much better opposition. Those late comebacks also included some defence. This is not a sure thing for Baylor.
My concern here is the way ULM allowed 255 yards on the ground to Auburn. But with QB Browning throwing the way he is, they are never going to be out of it. In 2 games he has thrown for 649 yards and 6 TDs, with just 1 pick. Baylor may have 2 wins, but giving up 460 yards of total offence per game suggests this is hardly a team that can be banked on to shut opponents down.
BETTING VERDICT
The spread is at 7.5 and I think that is way too many points for a team I truly believe have a great chance at winning. Do not miss this one.
The Pick :
ULM
BEST BETTING TIP :
Consider ULM to win @ 3.40 (Pinnacle)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take ULM +7.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
