NFL Football
2012-09-16 - Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 2
Sunday 16 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Time)
Preview
The AFC South looks like a Division that is Houston Texans (1-0) to lose, especially after the performances of the rest of the teams that make up the section last week. The Texans can really put a mark on the Division early if they can come into Florida and knock off the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) who are coming off a tough loss.
Houston were dominant in their win over the Miami Dolphins last week and they will look to continue where they left off, although they do have a few areas where they want to improve in the coming weeks. Matt Schaub was efficient last week as he comfortably managed the game for the Texans and didn't have to do too much more.
He has a favourable match up in this game, especially with the way Andre Johnson was playing last week and he should get some time in the pocket especially if the Jaguars struggle to control the rushing Defense as they did against the Minnesota Vikings.
Jacksonville gave up 4.2 yards per carry in that game so the likes of Arian Foster and Ben Tate should have room to keep the Texans in short and manageable situations and give Schaub the time to make his plays off of play-action.
While I do feel the Texans will be able to get things going, it is hard to tell how Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars are going to do against one of the toughest Defenses in the NFL. Gabbert struggled last season, but he has looked better in pre-season and had a solid enough week last Sunday against the Vikings.
Gabbert threw for 260 yards with 2 touchdown passes last week, but it could be a lot tougher for him now he is going against a Defense that allowed less than 200 yards against the Dolphins. A big question will also be asked of the Jacksonville Offensive Line who gave up 2 sacks last week and are now playing a team that managed 3 last weekend and had 44 last season.
Gabbert will look to the running game to keep the pass rush at bay and also to keep the team in short and manageable situations, but Houston did limit a Miami team to 4.16 yards per carry and can also take this situation away by getting into a big lead. Houston were ranked Number 4 against the run last season and that may mean Gabbert is in a position where he will have to throw to keep the Jaguars in this game.
Head to Head
Houston have won 3 games in a row in the series, including their first win in Jacksonville since 2006.
The Texans are 5-3 against the spread in their last 8 visits to this part of Florida and they are 5-3-1 against the spread in the last 9 overall.
Other Interesting Trends
Jacksonville are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against Divisional rivals.
Houston are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Houston Texans to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Houston have definitely had the edge in this Divisional clash in recent meetings and I am expecting that to continue on both sides of the ball in this one.
Second, Houston have been very comfortable as the road favourite in the last couple of seasons, going 5-2 against the spread, while Jacksonville are just 3-6 against the spread as the home underdog over the same period.
Third, Jacksonville had a tough overtime loss last week on the road when it looked like they had done enough to win that game. Teams have struggled to bounce back from that kind of loss and are just 28-62 against the spread following an overtime loss on the road since 1994.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Jacksonville Jaguars 10-23 Houston Texans
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Houston Texans - 7 Points @ 2.00
