Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers Betting pick | 2012-09-15

NCAA Football

2012-09-15 - Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 6pm ET
11pm (British Time)

Preview

It doesn't get any easier for the Florida Gators (2-0) as they take their unbeaten record to Knoxville and put it against the Tennessee Volunteers (2-0), another unbeaten team. What makes it tougher is the fact this is another SEC game for Florida having gone into College Station to knock off the Texas A&M Aggies last season, and this is arguably more important as both are members of the SEC East.

Both teams are ranked in the top 25 while playing each other for the first time since 2007.

Florida made all the right adjustments last week in the second half to shut down an impressive Texas A&M first half performance and lead to the close win. They will bring Mike Gillislee and the running game to Knoxville in a bid to have an impact on the Tennessee Volunteers 2.8 yards per carry they have given up so far this season.

The Vols will not have played a running attack as good as the one that Florida possess and Gillislee has overcome a groin problem and will be fit to start this game. The running back has averaged 6.1 yards per carry himself and has also got into the endzone 4 times on the ground in the opening two games and should have some success behind his Offensive Line.

Gillislee will also need to be in tip top form if the Offensive Line is going to keep Jeff Driskel upright in this one as they have already given up 9 sacks this season. Tennessee can generate a pass rush and they have also picked up 5 interceptions in the early part of this season.

While I think the Volunteers will have some success keeping the Florida Offense in check, the key for them in this game will be finding a way to run the ball successfully. They have currently been going at 4.6 yards per clip, but they haven't faced an SEC Defense like Florida's who have held teams to 3.6 yards per carry and shut down Christine Michael of the Texas A&M Aggies to just 2.5 yards per carry last week.

Martin Lane has been the Running Back who has been most effective for Tennessee, but Rajion Neal has had double the carries and is only moving at 3.4 yards per carry. They are likely to struggle to move the ball with any consistency in this game and that will move the pressure onto Tyler Bray at the Quarter Back position.

Bray has already thrown for almost 650 yards through the air this season and he has 6 touchdown passes to his name. However, those have come against Defenses unlike Florida's which has only allowed a little over 200 yards per game through the air and this will be a tougher test for the Quarter Back.

The dismissal of Da'Rick Rogers hasn't affected the passing game just yet, but this is the biggest test they will have faced. The Offensive Line has also been very good at protecting Bray with just 1 sack given up this season, although they face their toughest test against the Gators pass rush that has 4 sacks to their name.

Bray will have some success through the air, but he has to be more careful with the ball than he was when he last faced Florida as he coupled his 3 touchdown passes with 2 interceptions.

Head to Head

The Florida Gators have won the last 7 games in the series between the schools and they are 4-2-1 against the spread in those games.

Florida have won on their last 3 trips to Knoxville and they are also 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games here.

Other Interesting Trends

Tennessee are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against Conference rivals.

They are just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games.

Florida are just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 Conference games.

Prediction

This is a really close game to call and it is no wonder the spread is set as a field goal. However, I am going to back the Florida Gators to secure a big road win and move to 2-0 in SEC play for the following reasons:

First, I think Florida may have the edge in the rushing department and that could be the key difference here. 21 of the last 22 games between these schools has been won by the team that has the most rushing yards and since I give that edge to the Gators in this one, I like Florida's chances to win outright.

Second, it is tough to play back to back Conference games on the road, but Florida may just be a little more battle hardened than Tennessee coming into this game and could be the little difference between the teams.

Third, it is hard to ignore the fact that Florida have dominated the recent series between the schools and I think they have the better Defense that is going to create more stops than their Volunteers counter-parts.

I might be completely wrong on this one, but I just feel the odds are a little too big on the road team and that edge in the rushing department looks huge considering the point I made under 'First'.