NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - Utah State Aggies at Wisconsin Badgers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Time)
Preview
The Wisconsin Badgers (1-1) have been one of the biggest disappointments in the early part of the new season and they will be looking to bounce back from a shock loss at Oregon State last weekend. They face the Utah State Aggies (2-0) who are coming in off a big win when knocking off local rivals the Utah Utes last Friday night.
Wisconsin have been known for their big Offensive Lines down in recent years, one that has supplied many a NFL Draft, and they have one of the biggest Lines in the whole nation. With Montee Bell returning, the Badgers were expected to have one of the more potent rushing attacks.
They are averaging just 2.9 yards per carry this season and are coming up against a stout Defense that has held teams to 2.2 yards per carry. It was no real surprise that the Offensive Line Coach was fired in Wisconsin, a team that hasn't averaged less than 4.6 yards per carry over the last 4 seasons.
Struggling to protect Danny O'Brien at the Quarter Back position has been another issue for the Wisconsin Badgers and they have already allowed 4 sacks in their first two games after giving up just 25 last season.
I can't imagine this Offensive Line continuing to struggle though and I am looking for a vastly improved performance from a unit that has been taking a lot of flak over the last week. They should get Montee Bell going a little bit more and that should give O'Brien a little more room to operate from the Quarter Back position, although the Aggies have been excellent on Defense early this season.
Utah State will look to enforce their own running game on Wisconsin in this game, but that won't be easy as the Badgers have allowed just 2.4 yards per carry and haven't given up a rushing touchdown this season. I expect the Aggies will look to pound the ball, but they may have to rely on the pass to keep the chains moving and they have a possibility to do so in this match up.
That is because the Wisconsin Defense has really struggled to get things done when the ball has been in the air and they have allowed 270 passing yards per game this season. The Badgers are yet to pick off a ball and that is where Chuckie Keeton could be a huge playmaker in this game for Utah State.
Keeton has been efficient with an almost 78% completion rate, while he has only thrown 1 interception to his 4 touchdown passes so far. The Quarter Back has been getting enough protection to believe he will at least make some big plays in this game to help the Utah State team move the chains.
Head to Head
This is only the second game ever between the two schools, the first coming back in 1968 when Utah State were 20-0 winners here in Madison.
Other Interesting Trends
Wisconsin are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games at home.
Utah State are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against non-Conference schools.
However, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games.
Prediction
Call me a little nuts, but I am going to back Wisconsin to recover from their horrible performance last week and win this game while covering the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Badgers have been bashed in the media for the entire week since their loss to Oregon State and I think that will fire them up to have a big performance, particularly this Offensive Line.
Second, Utah State are playing a non-Conference school after a big emotional winner over local rivals Utah and could be in a let down spot here.
Third, the Aggies are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
The Pick :
Wisconsin Badgers 31-17 Utah State Aggies
