NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - USC Trojan at Stanford Cardinal
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 7:30pm ET
12:30am (British Time)
Preview
The picture in the PAC-12 will be slightly clearer this weekend as the USC Trojans (2-0) take on the Stanford Cardinal (2-0) in a big game for both schools. It could potentially be the PAC-12 Championship Game in December, although I am pretty sure the Oregon Ducks will have something to say about that.
This game will be remembered by some for the headache it caused USC backers last year in Vegas as they failed to cover as 7.5 point favourites here last season despite the game going into a triple overtime- once the game reaches that stage, a team HAS to go for two when scoring a touchdown and that proved to be the difference.
Things have changed from a season ago as Andrew Luck of Stanford has been taken as the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft and it is Matt Barkley of USC that is the leading contender to take that spot in the next Draft.
Barkley may be in line for a big game in this one to highlight the Trojans chances of winning the National Championship, particularly if Stanford struggle to defend the pass as they have in their first two games. The Cardinals are allowing almost 290 passing yards per game and they wouldn't have faced a Quarter Back close to the calibre of Matt Barkley.
That should only open the running lanes for the Trojans who are going for 6.1 yards per carry, although Stanford have been stout on that front so far. Either way, I don't see Stanford keeping USC from moving the chains and it will be whether this new Cardinals team will be able to keep up with them.
Josh Nunes has taken over from Andrew Luck and it is no surprise that they are only just averaging over 200 yards per game through the air. The Quarter Back has been protected by the Offensive Line for the most part, but USC have been bringing a lot of pressure and have managed to grab 7 sacks in their first two games.
Nunes will also need to be careful of the ball-hawking playmakers in the USC team, so I can see the team looking to Stepfan Taylor to pound the ball on the ground and keep the powerful Trojan Offense on the sidelines. However, the Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for Taylor and they have averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in their first two games, far below the 5.3 yards per carry they averaged in 2011 when teams had to defend Luck and the passing game.
It won't be easy against USC anyway as they have held their first two opponents to an average of 2.6 yards per carry and were one of only three teams to restrict Stanford to under 4 yards per carry a year ago.
If that is the case, there will be more pressure on Nunes to keep up with Barkley and that is a really tough ask for a new Quarter Back against this USC Defense.
Head to Head
Stanford have won 3 games in a row for the series and will look to make history by beating the Trojans 4 times in a row for the first time in school history.
The Cardinals are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series against USC.
Stanford have won their last home game against USC, but they had previously lost 4 in a row here and they are 2-3 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Stanford are 11-2-1 against the spread in their last 14 games against Conference rivals.
They are 21-8 against the spread in their last 29 games at home.
USC have won the last 4 games against the spread when playing Conference rivals.
Prediction
I am going to back the USC Trojans to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, USC will have had enough of being beaten by Stanford and I imagine they are itching to set the record straight and get one over on the Cardinal now they no longer have Andrew Luck.
Second, I like a bit of history at times and every time USC have lost three in a row to Stanford, they have won the next game by an average of 18 points per game (4 previous three game losing streaks).
Third, I think it is tough to ask an inexperienced Quarter Back like Josh Nunes to make enough plays to keep up with Matt Barkley who I like to have a lot of success against this passing Defense of the Cardinal.
The Pick :
Stanford Cardinal 21-34 USC Trojans
