NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - Notre Dame at Michigan State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Time)
Preview
This is the game of Week 3 as the Michigan State Spartans (2-0) host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0) in a battle of unbeaten teams. These two schools are familiar with one another and both will feel confident in their chances to beat the other in the primetime evening game.
Notre Dame have been over to Dublin, Ireland this season to open up the new campaign and there is a Quarter Back controversy brewing in South Bend after Tommy Rees, who was suspended for the first game, came in last week to close the show against Purdue and led the drive that won the game for the Fighting Irish.
Everett Golson has been told he is the starter again this week, although Brian Kelly isn't afraid of making the change at Quarter Back if necessary. He will need to be a little more efficient than he has been so far with his 2-1 touchdown-interception ratio, but it is going to be tough against the Spartans Defense that has allowed less than 50% completions.
It is unlikely that Golson will get a lot of support from the running game either as Michigan State are only giving up 2.4 yards per carry so far this season. However, the good news for the Notre Dame crew is Cierre Wood is back from his suspension and having the leading rusher from the 2011 season has to be a huge boost to the team.
If Wood can provide some kind of impact on the rushing Defense, Notre Dame may just be able to find some success with their passing game to keep the chains going.
The question for Notre Dame is whether the can bottle up Le'Veon Bell as they did last season when they held him to 27 yards from his 7 carries. However, Bell has been playing well in the opening games and has already picked up 4 rushing touchdowns to his name while he is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
It won't be easy for Bell with the way Notre Dame have been playing the run, but it could potentially open things up for Andrew Maxwell who has been completing 60% of his passes this season, but is still struggling with his 2 touchdown, 3 interceptions from the first two games.
Notre Dame have also generated a very effective pass rush that has accounted for 7 sacks in their opening two games and that is going to be a real test for the Michigan State Offensive Line which has protected Maxwell effectively so far. Notre Dame's ability to get to the Quarter Back has helped their pass Defense limit teams to under 200 yards per game through the air early in the season.
Head to Head
Notre Dame beat Michigan State by 18 points to cover the spread last season, but the last 10 games have been split 5-5 between the schools.
It says a lot that those 10 games have also been split 5-5 against the spread.
Michigan State have won their last 2 home games against Notre Dame, but they are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 at home against the Fighting Irish.
Other Interesting Trends
Michigan State are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games at home.
Notre Dame are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games against Big Ten schools.
Prediction
I am going to take the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to at least keep this close so will be taking the points for the following reasons:
First, games between these two schools have usually been close affairs with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish going 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 visits to Michigan State. The road team is actually 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
Second, both Defenses are playing well enough to cause the other team plenty of problems and everything is pointing to a low-scoring affair that could be settled by a field goal either way.
Third, the Fighting Irish are 4-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last three seasons.
The Pick :
Michigan State 16-13 Notre Dame
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 5.5 Points @ 1.95
