NFL Football
2012-09-13 - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 2
Thursday 13 September 2012 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Time)
Preview
The Green Bay Packers (0-1) lost their opening game of the season and they cannot afford to drop a second in a row, especially not against their NFC North rivals the Chicago Bears (1-0). The NFL have now opened up each week with a Thursday game and that means the Bears are on the short week this time around.
Green Bay will need a much improved performance compared with Week 1 when they were bullied for much of the game by the San Francisco 49ers. Much of that was down to the fact they were made to be very one-dimensional as Cedric Benson failed to get anything going on the ground.
The Packers struggled rushing the ball last season too, but they were a little better than 3 yards per carry against the 49ers and that is far below what is going to get the job done. I am expecting Benson to find a little more room to run in this game against the Chicago Bears, but I don't expect huge numbers. They won't need big numbers, just enough to keep the Bears from dropping men into coverage to defend the pass.
Aaron Rodgers did find a way to get the chains moving through the air, but he will need better protection from the Offensive Line that gave up 3 sacks, particularly as Chicago do generate pressure through Julius Peppers, while Henry Melton did grab 2 at the weekend too.
Greg Jennings looks like he may be missing for Rodgers in the passing game, but Chicago may also be short as Charles Tillman was banged up on Sunday and the short week is not helping either of those players. Tillman is the biggest Corner Chicago have and the Bears did give up over 300 yards through the air against Andrew Luck in his first NFL start. The Packers also did put up 280 yards through the air without Jennings against the Bears last season.
On the other side of the ball, I expect the Bears are going to enjoy plenty of success too especially if Green Bay's Defense is as porous as it was on Sunday. Chicago have a really good balanced Offense and they will be able to move the chains either on the ground or through the air.
Matt Forte and Michael Bush are a very effective tandem from the Running Back position and they should have their way with a Packers Defense that allowed a staggering 5.8 yards per carry against the 49ers. The Bears did struggle to move the ball on the ground last year in their first game with Green Bay as Forte had 9 carries for 2 yards, but their upgrade at the Wide Receiver positions means Green Bay cannot be entirely focused on Forte.
Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler know each other well from their time at Denver so it was no surprise Marshall was targeted 15 times in their opening game and managed to 119 yards with a touchdown. Alshon Jeffery is another big target and Earl Bennett is a reliable pair of hands so Green Bay will have their hands full with this receiving corps.
The Defense played badly against San Francisco and need to find better schemes as too often they had blown coverages down the field. It was too easy for the 49ers and Green Bay will need to do a lot better on that front. Green Bay may have more success getting to Jay Cutler, even though they did get 4 sacks against the 49ers, and that is where they could turn this game in their favour.
Green Bay also need to cut down on the 10 penalties they gave away on Sunday which extended drives at times.
Head to Head
Green Bay are 6-1 in the last 7 games in the series between these two traditional rivals and the Packers have gone 5-2 against the spread in those games.
The Packers are 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last 4 home games against Chicago.
Overall, Green Bay are 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.
Other Interesting Trends
Green Bay are now 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 home games.
They have won their last 4 against the spread when playing Divisional rivals.
Chicago are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against Conference rivals.
Prediction
I have been back and forth about this game, but have settled for the Green Bay Packers as I am not ready to give up on this time after one game. I like them to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Packers are a strong home team when favoured and have an 15-8 record against the spread in this spot over the last two seasons.
Second, Green Bay are also one of the better bounce back teams in the NFL and have gone 9-3 against the spread following a loss in the last three seasons.
Third, Green Bay are 8-5 against the spread in recent home games as the favourite against Divisional rivals, while Chicago are just 2-6 against the spread as the road underdog against Divisional rivals.
Fourth, the Bears are just 6-10-1 against the spread as the road underdog since Jay Cutler signed for Chicago.
Fifth, I just don't trust Jay Cutler not to throw a crucial interception in a game of this magnitude. The Bears really want this win against the top team in the NFC North, but the Offensive Line is still a concern so Cutler may be 'forced' into plays he doesn't want and I just trust Aaron Rodgers so much more.
Don't be fooled into thinking Green Bay are the public play here- many, like me, are struggling with this game and it is no wonder Vegas are only stating a slight lean in favour of the Packers as to where the money is going. It is also entirely possible the spread will move DOWN, another big sign that the 'big money' is on the Bears in this one.
I just like the Packers in a bounce back spot in front of the national TV cameras to come out with a chip on their shoulder and do just enough to cover the spread.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 27-20 Chicago Bears
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers - 6 Points @ 2.00
