NFL Football
2012-09-10 - Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 1
Monday 10 September 2012 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Time)
Preview
This is a big AFC North clash between two teams that made the Play Offs last season and both will know they can take the lead in the Division with a win as both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns were beaten in their opening games.
The Baltimore Ravens won this Division last season and look like one of the leading contenders in the AFC, although the window is closing with an ageing Defense. They face one of the younger teams in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that surprised everyone by making the Play Offs a year ago with a rookie Quarter Back.
Joe Flacco will once again lead the Baltimore Offense and he is coming in off one of his biggest games, although falling short when the Ravens just failed to knock off the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last season. Flacco has plenty of weapons in the receiving areas to think the Ravens will be close to getting back to the SuperBowl for the first time in a decade, while they have been employing a no-huddle Offense in the pre-season to speed things up.
It's not just about Flacco though, who I think will have success against the Cincinnati Secondary as long as the Offensive Line can give him some time, but also Ray Rice who has signed a big contract extension and is one of the more versatile backs in the League.
Rice finished with over 2000 yards of Offense from the line of scrimmage last season and over 300 yards of those came in the two games against Cincinnati.
The playmaking ability of Rice should also give Flacco more time to set up little screen passes and play-action, which could open up the big play for Torrey Smith, and the Ravens should be able to move the chains with some consistency.
On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati will be the first to face a Baltimore Defense that is missing Terrell Suggs, the Defensive Player of the Year, until November at the earliest. Andy Dalton and AJ Green were very effective in their first year in the NFL, but a lot of that success came early in the season as Green began to be double-teamed.
Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis has taken over the running back duties for the Bengals, but Baltimore have notoriously been tough to run against, although Cincinnati were better than average against the Ravens last season.
They only gave up 3 sacks against Baltimore in two games last season so I expect Dalton will have time to make some plays in this one. With the added experience of the system and an off-season to work with the team rather than the lockout last season, I am expecting Cincinnati will be able to get points on the board in this one.
Head to Head
Baltimore won both games against Cincinnati last season, going 1-0-1 against the spread in those games.
The Ravens have won 3 of their last 4 games at home against the Bengals, although it is the Bengals that are 2-1-1 against the spread in those games.
The Bengals had won 4 games in a row against the spread before the 2011 season.
Other Interesting Trends
Baltimore are only 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 games at home. They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against Divisional rivals.
Cincinnati are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. They are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against teams from the AFC North.
Prediction
The spread has moved up to 7 points which looks like a push waiting to happen to me, so I am backing the Line/Total Points Double being offered at Paddy Power where Baltimore need to cover 6.5 points and the total points are set to 40.5 points.
Baltimore know their window is closing as far as SuperBowl aspirations are concerned and they will have noticed their two other Divisional rivals lost yesterday, giving them a chance to take sole control of the AFC North.
They look like the team that will get more consistent success in this one compared with Cincinnati, although the spread is a little off-putting considering they haven't beaten the Bengals at home by more than 7 points in 8 seasons.
However, this pick needs them to win by 7 or more to count as a winner and twice in the last four seasons they have won by exactly 7 points.
The over 40.5 points is the more difficult aspect of this pick as they have tended to play a lot of close, low-scoring games, but last season saw the Offenses open up a little bit and I expect to see more of the same.
Baltimore now have an Offense that can score points very quickly with the speed Torrey Smith has, while Cincinnati showed they can move the chains against the Ravens last season.
I expect a touchdown to be the difference in the end, with the Ravens taking it 24-17.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Baltimore Ravens 24-17 Cincinnati Bengals
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back a combination bet : Baltimore Ravens -6.5 Points and Over 40.5 Points (Line/Total Points Double) @ 3.50 (>A href="power.htm">Paddy Power)
