NFL Football
2012-09-09 - San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 1
Sunday 9 September 2012 - Kick Off 4:25pm ET
9:25pm (British Time)
Preview
It was a disappointing end to the 2011 season for the Green Bay Packers as their 15-1 record in the regular season earned them home-field advantage in the Play Offs only for the team to lose their first game and bounced by the New York Giants.
They have been quietly going about their business, but they are the major attraction in the late afternoon games as they take on the San Francisco 49ers, the team that finished with the second best record in the NFC and were also a couple of fumbled punts away from making it to the SuperBowl themselves last season.
Green Bay's Offense comes back intact from last season with Cedric Benson signed to provide more of a running game for them to keep them balanced. That might be a factor further down the line as it is tough to run on the 49ers Defense so the game will be on Aaron Rodgers' arm again.
Granted, the 49ers were the Number 4 Defense in the NFL when it came to yards per game and they were Number 2 in points per game allowed, but that shouldn't confuse you into thinking Green Bay will have a tough time. The 49ers were only 16th in the NFL when it came to passing Defense and were carved up by Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees and Rodgers with his weapons will not be any different in my opinion.
The 49ers should have their own success against the Packers Defense, although they should be a little more improved than they were in 2011 when the last team in total Defense. Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs should find some success on the ground against this team, but they will only be utilised as long as the 49ers are in this game.
That means it could come down to Alex Smith who will at least have the same Offensive Co-Ordinator in consecutive years for the first time since he joined the NFL. Smith should have some success as he has bodies like Vernon Davis, Mario Manningham and Randy Moss to throw to, but he will be facing a ball-hawking Secondary that does love to create turnovers as shown by the 31 picks they earned last season (number 1 in the NFL).
That may be the case again this season as they will be able to generate a pass rush outside of Clay Matthews and they are going against an Offensive Line that allowed 44 sacks last season.
Head to Head
Green Bay and San Francisco last met in the 2010 season, but it is the Packers that have dominated the head to head between these storied franchises.
The Packers have won 8 straight in the series going back to the 1999 season and they are 6-1-1 against the spread in those games.
Green Bay have also won 8 straight home games in the series, going 5-2-1 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Green Bay are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 home games.
They are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games against NFC teams.
San Francisco are 14-4-1 against the spread in their last 19 games.
They are 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 15 games against NFC teams.
Prediction
I am sticking with Aaron Rodgers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Green Bay have been a strong home favourite, going 14-7 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons.
Second, I believe the San Francisco Defense is one of the better ones in the NFL, but they have a hard time defending the pass and other elite Quarter Backs managed to throw for a lot of yards against them last season and I expect Aaron Rodgers to do the same with the weapons at his disposal.
Third, the 49ers were a surprise package for most teams last season, but the tapes are out on what Jim Harbaugh likes doing and you have to think the Packers have been geared up for this game for sometime now and game planned accordingly.
Four, I think the Packers will win the turnover battle and that may be enough to see them have chances to cover this spread.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 31-17 San Francisco 49ers
