New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans Betting pick | 2012-09-09

NFL Football

2012-09-09 - New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
United States: NFL Week 1
Sunday 9 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Time)

Preview

I am not a New England Patriot fan in any way, shape or form, but you have to a have a lot of respect for the way they go about their business and it is no surprise that they are the amongst the favourites to win the SuperBowl this season after coming so close last year.

They open the season at the Tennessee Titans who are one of the harder teams to read in the NFL as they show as much inconsistency as anyone in the League. The Titans also seem to go under the radar after finishing with a winning record last season, although they have made some significant changes in the off-season coming into this one.

What is there to say about the New England Offense? They continually find men to plug into the gaps and Tom Brady continues to make stars out of his receivers, although he has plenty of names to throw to this season. Rob Gronkowski was the star at Tight End a season ago, but Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are very good receiving options, while Brandon Lloyd has been signed to provide a deep ball threat and keep Defenses honest.

It will be tough for Tennessee to stop the Patriots moving the ball through the air in this one, particularly if their front 7 cannot at least get some pressure on Brady. The Secondary has lost Cortland Finnegan and will only be as good as the pressure up front, but the two Tight Ends are a really tough match up for any Defense.

Tennessee also struggled to stop the run last season so the likes of Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead may also be utilised to keep the Defense honest and give Brady that little more time to rip the Defense apart.

The Titans shouldn't be worried about whether it is possible to get things done against New England considering the Patriots were 31st in total Defense last season, although the bigger question mark should be around Jake Locker who will be the starting Quarter Back for them

New England have made changes to their Defense with some high picks in the Draft that will be expected to come in a play immediately, but it is possible to pass on them although how much leash is given to Locker in this opening game is up for debate.

The Patriots also gave up 4.6 yards per carry on the ground last season so there will be the expectation that Chris Johnson will make a faster start to 2012 than he did 2011 in this game. He should have success running the ball, although Tennessee need to keep this game in hand so they are not forced into throwing situations.

Head to Head

These teams last met in the 2009 season when New England humiliated Tennessee by thumping them 59-0 at home.

The Patriots have won 4 in a row in the series, although only 1 of those have come on the road, and they are 3-1 against the spread in that run.

Other Interesting Trends

Tennessee are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 home games.

New England are 49-24-3 against the spread in their last 66 road games.

Prediction

I am going to be a square for this pick and taking the New England Patriots to win and cover this very tempting spread for the following reasons:

First, I don't put a lot into the pre-season and New England may not have looked good then, but they have won 8 in a row on the opening week of the season.

Second, the Offense has so many weapons that a new-look Tennessee Defense may have a hard time keeping them from moving the chains with any consistency and the Patriots should put up a fair number of points.

Third, Jake Locker is starting for Tennessee and while he will have some success, it will be tough for him to keep up in a score for score contest with Tom Brady and the Patriots, especially if the game begins to get away from them.

Fourth, Tennessee are just 13-23 against the spread against AFC teams over the last 3 seasons, while New England are 31-19-1 against the spread as the road favourite over the last ten seasons.

The one stat that really bothers me is that the SuperBowl loser is just 3-15 against the spread in Week 1 the following season, including New England in 2008. However, I'll look for New England to buck that trend as Dallas did when beating the SuperBowl winner in Week 1.

The Statistics :

TENNESSEE TITANS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-24	W	23-17	H v Jacksonville Jaguars
	2011-12-11	L	17-22	H v New Orleans Saints
	2011-11-27	W	23-17	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2011-11-06	L	17-24	H v Cincinnati Bengals
	2011-10-30	W	27-10	H v Indianapolis Colts
	2011-10-23	L	7-41	H v Houston Texans

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-18	W	23-41	A v Denver Broncos
	2011-12-11	W	27-34	A v Washington Redskins
	2011-11-27	W	20-38	A v Philadelphia Eagles
	2011-11-13	W	16-37	A v New York Jets
	2011-10-30	L	25-17	A v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2011-10-02	W	19-31	A v Oakland Raiders

HEAD TO HEAD TENNESSEE TITANS v NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
DATE	HOME	SCORE	AWAY
2006-12-31	Tennessee Titans	23-40	New England Patriots
2002-12-16	Tennessee Titans	24-7	New England Patriots
1988-09-25	Tennessee Titans	31-6	New England Patriots
1987-10-18	Tennessee Titans	7-21	New England Patriots