NCAA Football
2012-09-08 - Illinois at Arizona State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, September 8th, 2012, 10:30PM (3:30AM GMT)
PREVIEW
The Fighting Illini of Illinois are in town to face the Arizona State Sun Devils. The oddsmakers have the home team as 5.5 point underdogs but I have Illinois winning this outright. Obviously, this becomes a must bet with 5.5 points worth of gravy!
Both teams started with wins, as Illinois handled Western Michigan 24-7 and Arizona State wiped the floor with Northern Arizona 63-6. Let's put that into perspective. Arizona State ended last season with 5 straight losses, and Northern Arizona are, well, poo.
Illinois have won just 1 of the 3 meetings all time with Arizona State but the last one, in 2011, went to the Fighting Illini, who edged it 17-14. I expect the same kind of result here, especially because of Illinois young junior QB Nathan Scheelhaase. Last week he started things off with a 64 yard pass for a TD but had to leave in the 3rd quarter, and there is a chance he doesn't play tonight. Still, there is Reilly O'Toole, who filled in last week, and of course the ground game is able led by Jon Davis.
Speaking of rushing, Illinois doesn't allow much. Last week they allowed -6 yards in total, best in the nation! That defence then also intercepted Western Michigan's QB 3 times and caused a fumble. They will make life hell for ASU.
I'm not going to go into ASU's game too much because they were made to look much better than they are by Northern Arizonas inept defence, which allowed them to put up more points than they have managed in about 7 years.
Illinois are going to suffocate them, making them earn every point. If they win, that will be an accomplishment. I just don't think they have a chance at winning by a TD, which is what the spread more or less requires.
BETTING VERDICT
Let's go with Illinois to cover in this late game in Week 2.
The Pick :
Illinois to cover
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Illinois +5.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
