NFL Football
2012-09-09 - Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 1
Sunday 9 September 2012 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Time)
Preview
A year after having Vince Young proclaim them as the 'Dream Team', the Philadelphia Eagles are having a much quieter start to the new season and are not putting silly expectations on their own head. They open up in Cleveland where they take on the rebuilding Browns, a team that is unlikely to have any expectations at all of their current squad.
Philadelphia may just be the best team in the NFC East this season, especially if they can ride the momentum of winning 4 straight games to close the 2011 show and finish at 8-8. They had a lot of close losses and blown leads and you have to think the players will be a little more battle hardened as to what is expected of them this season, whereas a year ago they had a lot of new faces in the locker room.
The Offense should still be very capable as they continue playing Michael Vick at Quarter Back, but have surrounded with some big playmakers like LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. Unfortunately the Offensive Line has lost Jason Peters for the season with an injury, although the Right Tackle the blindside protecter for Vick.
I expect the Offensive Line will open the holes as they did last season when they had 5.1 yards per carry as a team. It was possible to run against the Cleveland Browns last season as they gave up 4.4 yards per carry and it is hard to see how they stop the Eagles considering Joe Haden, their best Corner Back, is suspended for the opener.
Cleveland's Defense will be better in the second year of the Dick Jauron system, but losing your best defender is not the way to get things done against this Philadelphia Offense. They will also need to get more pressure than they did last season if they are to find a way to get to Michael Vick in the backfield and it looks a tough proposition for the Browns to stop the Eagles.
On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia will look to rattle the new rookie Quarter Back of the Browns, Brandon Weeden, with their Defensive Line that picked up 46 of the 50 sacks they generated last season. It isn't so much that Cleveland were bad at protecting their Quarter Back, but it is more down to the rookie perhaps holding on to the ball too long and that is why I believe the Eagles will get to Weeden in this one.
Trent Richardson was the first pick the Browns made, but the rookie running back has been banged up and won't be at 100% for this game. Richardson would likely have had a tough day in the office anyway as the Offensive Line isn't great at opening holes and it is possible the Browns need to move away from him if they fall behind.
Philadelphia were a top 10 pass Defense last season too and I expect the Secondary would have improved with another year at the Eagles and it is tough to see how the Cleveland Browns can keep up with the potential scoring power of the Eagles.
Head to Head
These two teams are in opposite Conferences so only play once every four years unless they happen to meet in the SuperBowl.
They last met in 2008 as Philadelphia crushed Cleveland by 20 points at home to cover the spread.
Philadelphia have won all 3 games against the 'new' Cleveland Browns, although they are 1-2 against the spread, both ATS losses coming in games in Cleveland.
Other Interesting Trends
Cleveland are 2-8-2 against the spread in their last 12 games at home.
They are 1-11-1 against the spread in their last 13 opening games.
Philadelphia finished last season with a 4-1 record against the spread.
Prediction
I am going to back the Philadelphia Eagles to cover the spread in this opening game for the following reasons:
First, I think Philadelphia will be able to move the chains comfortably against a Cleveland team missing their best Corner Back and I just don't see how Cleveland can keep up with their inexperienced Offense.
Second, Cleveland have really struggled as the home underdog in recent seasons, going 3-6 against the spread in that spot over the last two seasons.
Third, I think the Eagles will win the turnover battle in this one, creating short fields in the process. Brandon Weeden will have the pass rush in his grill all night and he just doesn't have the playmakers to deal with this Defense in his first start.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Cleveland Browns 13-27 Philadelphia Eagles
