NCAA Football
2012-09-08 - UTEP Miners at Mississippi Rebels
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 8 September 2012 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Time)
Preview
The Mississippi Rebels (1-0) opened Hugh Freeze's reign as Head Coach with a comfortable win over Central Arkansas last week and now they face the UTEP Miners (0-1) at home. The Miners put in a great shift last week as they gave the Oklahoma Sooners all they could handle before falling to a 17 point home loss.
Bo Wallace had a good performance for Ole Miss in his first start for them, but he had been brought in as someone familiar with the Offense that Freeze will be running as he was part of the team at Arkansas State last season. Wallace is a duel threat Quarter Back that should be able to enjoy some success against this Miners Defense.
While UTEP were strong against the passing Offense the Sooners put up against them, they struggled on the ground, giving up 5.5 yards per carry after allowing 5.2 yards per carry a season ago. Ole Miss put up 235 yards on the ground last week and I expect them to ride that again here.
Despite all the positives last week, the Miners were restricted by the tough Oklahoma Defense. This Rebels Defense is not as strong as the Sooners so Nick Lamaison and the passing game should have a much improved day, although the Ole Miss Secondary should not be under-estimated.
UTEP will also continue pounding the ball after rushing for 207 yards off just 36 carries last weekend and that is an area the Mississippi Defense have had a hard time containing last season. Nathan Jeffery had his first 100 yard rushing game in his career and I wouldn't be surprised if he has his second this week unless the UTEP Miners fall too far behind.
Head to Head
UTEP beat Ole Miss in the 1967 Sun Bowl, their only previous meeting in school history.
Other Interesting Trends
Mississippi Rebels are 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games against non-Conference schools.
However, they are just 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 home games.
UTEP have now won their last 4 games against the spread when playing non-Conference schools. However, they have lost their last 4 against the spread when playing SEC schools.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games.
Prediction
This is a tough game that could have a lot of points, but I am backing the Mississippi Rebels to equal their win total from 2011 and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, UTEP put in a huge effort against Oklahoma last weekend and came up short for the upset and they may be a little emotionally spent for this non-Conference road game.
Second, the Miners have lost their last 15 road games at BCS schools, losing by an average of 37 points per game.
Third, Ole Miss have had a bad couple of seasons, but they have brought in a Head Coach with a winning mentality and that should shine through in a winnable game.
The Pick :
Mississippi Rebels 34-24 UTEP Miners
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Mississippi Rebels - 8.5 Points @ 2.00
