NCAA Football
2012-09-08 - Idaho Vandals at Bowling Green
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 8 September 2012 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Time)
Preview
The Bowling Green Falcons (0-1) returned 17 starters from last season and that experience shone through last weekend as they pushed the SEC East's Florida Gators in a 13 point loss on the road. The Falcons are one of the favourites in the MAC this season and will open their home season with a game against the Idaho Vandals (0-1) who have 10 starters returning from a 2-10 team.
The Vandals really struggled with their Offense last week as they scored just 3 points in a 17 point loss to Eastern Michigan. They did play a back up Quarter Back, although it is unclear if Dominique Blackman will be in play in this match. They are going to have a tough time against the Bowling Green Defense that is improved at the Defensive Line and Linebacker units, especially if last week is anything to go by.
Idaho also struggled on the ground last week, but they may improve on that front this week. If they don't, the Vandals will become very one-dimensional and the Bowling Green team may be able to tee-off on the Quarter Back.
Matt Schilz played well at Quarter Back for Bowling Green last week against Florida and he should get plenty of joy against the Idaho Secondary. He was only picked off once by the Florida Gators last week but he will be looking to improve on his 28-13 touchdown-interception ratio from last season.
He proved that the inexperienced receiving corps can make a difference this season with the performance of the passing game last week in the Swamp. The running backs have come back intact from last season and the Offensive Line looks capable of opening up a lot of holes for them this season.
Idaho did give up 4.2 yards per carry last season, but they may be a little weaker on that front this season despite only giving up 3.8 yards per carry last week.
Head to Head
These two schools are tied at 1-1 in their history with Idaho winning in a Bowl game in 2009 and Bowling Green winning on the road in the regular season last year.
Bowling Green covered the spread last season.
Other Interesting Trends
Bowling Green are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
They are just 11-23 against the spread in their last 34 home games.
Idaho are 13-28-1 against the spread in their last 42 games following a straight up loss.
They are 9-4-1 against the spread in their last 14 games against non-Conference schools.
Prediction
I am going to back the Bowling Green Falcons to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Falcons have shown they can get things done on the Offensive side of the ball, while Idaho are still trying to get that side of the ball, with the inexperience, up to speed.
Second, Idaho are now 1-11 in their road openers and they have lost those games by an average of 29 points per game.
Third, Bowling Green are 10-1 in their home openers and they have covered the spread three years in a row.
Fourth, the Falcons look the far stronger team and could be one of the top teams in the MAC this season and have much more experience than their opponents.
The Pick :
Bowling Green 34-13 Idaho Vandals
