NCAA Football
2012-09-08 - Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 8 September 2012 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Time)
Preview
The SEC West is dominated by the Alabama Crimson Tide, LSU Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks, but that won't stop this being a very important game for both the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-0) and the Auburn Tigers (0-1).
It wasn't that long ago that the Auburn Tigers would have been amongst the elite in this Division and winning a National Championship title, but this squad is far removed from that time. They are coming into this game after a crushing defeat to the Clemson Tigers in what was a battle throughout.
They were battered on the ground and gave up 320 yards and that will be an area that the Mississippi State Bulldogs will look to exploit in this one. There are going to be a few battered bodies on the Defensive Line, although the Bulldogs have lost Vince Ballard who was taken by the Indianapolis Colts in the Draft.
Mississippi State did go for over 5 yards per carry in their first game of the season last week and they were very effective against Auburn last season on the ground. The Bulldogs also have some experience in the Quarter Back position that could lead to big numbers through the air if Auburn cheat with the number in the box to stop the run.
It will also be tough for Auburn as they are getting a new Offensive system in place and will have to really have come on in the last week. Kiehl Frazier struggled last week for consistency and he also had to take 2 sacks as well as throwing a pick. He might get some help if Mississippi State allow over 6 yards per carry as they did last season against the Tigers, but Michael Dyer is no longer here and that puts more pressure on the likes of Onterio McCalebb and Tre Mason to make up those missed numbers.
Head to Head
Auburn are 10-1 against Mississippi State and they have also won 5 in a row on the Bulldogs' own patch.
In their 5 home losses, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 against the spread.
The favourite is now 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.
Other Interesting Trends
Mississippi State are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games at home.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against Conference schools.
Auburn are 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 games against Conference schools.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games.
Prediction
I am going to back the Mississippi State Bulldogs to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, this is the only game in September that the Bulldogs will care about and they should be fully focused with all their efforts concentrated on it.
Second, Auburn are coming off a tough loss to Clemson in their first game and they also face the LSU Tigers in a couple of weeks so their focus could potentially wonder after their recent domination of Mississippi State.
Third, Mississippi State are 5-3 against the spread in the last two seasons as the home favourite, while Auburn are just 3-6 against the spread as the road underdog under Gene Chizik.
The Pick :
Mississippi State 21-17 Auburn Tigers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Mississippi State Bulldogs - 3 Points @ 2.00
