NFL Football
2012-09-05 - Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Week 1
Wednesday 5 September 2012 - Kick Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Time)
Preview
There aren't too many better ways to kick off the NFL season than a battle between two of the leading contenders in the NFC East as the SuperBowl Champions, the New York Giants, host the Dallas Cowboys in East Rutherford.
The Giants swept the Cowboys last season and that proved to be the difference over which of these teams were going to play in the Play Offs so even in Week 1 this match up is huge.
New York had just under 950 yards of total Offense in their two games against the Cowboys last season and 731 yards came through the air. Eli Manning has lost Mario Manningham in the passing game this season, but Hakeem Nicks is likely to start opposite Victor Cruz in this one with the likes of ex-Cowboy Martellus Bennett and Rueben Randle looking to exploit any match ups they may get.
Dallas did upgrade their Defense from last season by signing Brandon Carr and picking up Morris Claiborne in the Draft. Jay Ratliff will be missing on the Defensive Line for the Cowboys, but this is a unit that restricted teams to under 100 yards per game on the ground, although the Giants may have improved their rushing game by picking David Wilson in the Draft to complement Ahmad Bradshaw.
However, Dallas only managed 2 sacks against the Giants in the two games against them last season and that is an area they will need to improve if they want their upgraded Secondary to really have an impact in this game.
The opening game will also once again see comparisons between Eli Manning and Tony Romo and whether the latter is an elite Quarter Back. Romo will have Miles Austin and Dez Bryant to throw to in this game, but is likely missing his safety blanket Jason Witten and that could cause problems. It was possible to pass on the Giants last season as their Secondary is not the best, but their Defensive Line is healthy and that could be an issue for Dallas today.
The Dallas Offensive Line needs to do a better job in protecting Romo against this pass rush that will be provided by Jean Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora who are all healthy. New York sacked Romo 9 times in their 2 games last season so if Dallas get into obvious passing situations, that could be a real problem for them.
It has been possible to run the ball against the Giants and that is where DeMarco Murray could have a huge impact in this game if the Cowboys are going to pull the upset. Murray missed the Week 17 game against New York last season and was injured in the first, although he was going at 5 yards per carry before that.
Head to Head
The New York Giants have dominated this Divisional rivalry in recent games, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread in the last 9 in the series.
The Giants are 3-1 straight up and against the spread in their last 4 home games against the Cowboys.
Other Interesting Trends
New York have won their last 6 games against the spread going back to Week 16 last year.
Dallas are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games.
They have lost their last 6 games against the spread when playing Divisional rivals.
Prediction
I think the New York Giants are going to win this game and cover the spread as the SuperBowl winners have a strong record in their first game of the next season, but I feel more comfortable picking the Over 45 Points for the following reasons:
First, these two Offenses are capable of putting up big numbers and have match ups they can exploit in this one.
Second, the Overs is 6-2 in the last 8 games in the series and it is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games played in New York.
Third, there is a real potential for turnovers in this one which could create short fields, while both Offenses have quick strike ability and that could lengthen the game and help the Overs come in.
My biggest concern is the weather in New York which is calling for a chance of rain at kick off, although that should improve as the game develops. Barring a deluge ruining the field, the Overs should be in play.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New York Giants 31-24 Dallas Cowboys
