NCAA Football
2012-09-01 - Arkansas State at Oregon Ducks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 1 September 2012 - Kick Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Time)
Preview
The Oregon Ducks have won 12 games in each of their last two seasons and are once again one of the favourites in the PAC 12 Conference and many will be expecting them to play in the Conference title game in December. However, they have lost some key members of their explosive Offense since last season and it will be interesting to see how they are replaced.
LaMichael James was the feature Running Back here last season, but he left for the NFL and was picked up by the San Francisco 49ers in the Second Round so it looks the right decision. On the other hand, Quarter Back Darron Thomas also decided to leave for the NFL early, but he went undrafted and many are criticising his choice not to come back and lead the Ducks this season.
That means Oregon will have Marcus Mariota as the new starting Quarter Back and he impressed in the spring games, while Kenjon Barner will be getting the bulk of the carries for the team.
With the spread Offense in place, I still expect the Ducks to be the explosive, quick strike team that they were last season. They will also be able to get in their stride against an Arkansas State Defense that is only returning 4 starters from last season and is lacking in experience.
The Red Wolves also only return 6 starters from the Offense, while also getting a lot more attention from their opponents this season following a 10 win year last time out. Arkansas State are also facing an Oregon Defense that should be improved from last season as they look talented in all three facets of this side of the ball.
The Defensive Line should win the battle against the Red Wolves Offensive Line and will make it tough to run the ball on them effectively and they have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry or better in the last five seasons.
Oregon also picked off the ball 17 times last season in the Secondary, while Arkansas State will be learning a new Offensive system this year and that could make the difference in the game as the Ducks get to work with some short fields.
Head to Head
This will be the first time these schools will play one another.
Other Interesting Trends
Oregon have won their last 4 games against the spread when playing schools from the Sun Belt Conference.
Arkansas State are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games on the road.
Prediction
I am going to back the Oregon Ducks to cover the big spread for the following reasons:
First, Oregon have still got the same system in place that helped them score lots of points very quickly in the last couple of years and Marcus Mariota looks more than capable of leading this team.
Second, Arkansas State did have a great season last year, but they are now learning a new system and have only 10 starters returning on both sides of the ball.
Third, the Red Wolves may struggle to run the ball and will be forced into throwing against an Oregon Defense that creates turnovers and short fields for their powerful Offense.
The Pick :
Oregon Ducks 52-13 Arkansas State
