NCAA Football
2012-09-01 - Oklahoma Sooners at UTEP Miners
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 1 September 2012 - Kick Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Time)
Preview
The start of the new season sees one of the favourites for the National Championship, the Oklahoma Sooners, travel across the border to take on the UTEP Miners, a team not expected to be challengers in their own Conference let alone for the overall title.
Oklahoma return 15 starters from a season ago, including Landry Jones behind Center, and they look the pick of the teams in the Big 12 Conference. However, they have some serious injuries on the Offensive Line while Ryan Broyles, Jones' safety blanket from a year ago, has moved to the NFL.
The Sooners still have players like Dominique Whaley and Kenny Stills that are playmakers, while the arrival of Justin Brown from Penn State gives Jones more options in the passing game.
UTEP do have an experienced Defensive Line that may take advantage of some of the injuries Oklahoma have been suffering, but they have historically struggled against the run and I expect Whaley is going to have an enjoyable start to the season. Opening up the running lanes will just make life easier for Jones at Quarter Back and Oklahoma won't be slowed down too much when they have the ball.
Last season, it was the Oklahoma Defense that really struggled at times, particularly in their losses, so Mike Stoops is back as Defensive Co-Ordinator to work under his brother Bob who is the Head Coach.
The Defense are a little less experienced than last season, but they are highly respected and they should be all the better for Mike Stoops being back as the Co-Ordinator. They are facing a UTEP team that has lost their three Running Backs from last season and will be forced to throw to keep up with the Sooners.
UTEP's Offensive Line might have a tough time, despite being more experienced, and they will want to improve on the 35 sacks they gave up last season. Oklahoma are a tough team to run against consistently, so the Sooners should be able to pin back their ears and attack the Quarter Back in this one.
Head to Head
Oklahoma have won both previous meetings against UTEP although both of those took place in the early part of the 2000's.
Both of those games were also in Oklahoma as the Sooners covered twice in wins by an average of 41 points per game.
Other Interesting Trends
UTEP are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against non-Conference teams.
They are just 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games against schools from the Big 12.
Oklahome have won their last 5 games against the spread when playing non-Conference schools.
Prediction
I am going to back the Oklahoma Sooners to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, there is a clear difference in terms of talent and experience in the two schools.
Second, I think UTEP are going to find it difficult to stop Oklahoma moving the chains in this one, while struggling to run the ball themselves. That means the Miners will need to throw the ball and they will be going up a Secondary that turns the ball over and may give the Sooners short fields.
Third, the Sooners clearly don't take non-Conference foes lightly and they are 14-8 against the spread in these games going back to 2007.
The Pick :
UTEP Miners 10-44 Oklahoma Sooners
