UCF Knights at Akron Zips Betting pick | 2012-08-30

NCAA Football

2012-08-30 - UCF Knights at Akron Zips

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

UCF Knights @ Akron Zips
United States: College Football
Thursday 30 August 2012 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Time)

Preview

The UCF Knights have brought back 16 starters, 8 on both sides of the ball, and look to be the best team in the Conference USA. However, they finished with a losing record last season, their first since 2008, as they look for a bounce back year. A game in Akron against the Zips should see UCF make a good start to this new season.

Akron have a new Head Coach in Terry Bowden and they are returning just 13 starters after finishing 1-11 last season. The 1-11 season was the second in succession and there are likely to be teething problems for the Zips as they look to improve in the MAC.

The problem for the Zips this season is they are learning a new scheme and there is every chance that Bowden will decide to start looking at some of the younger players in the team for future success by giving them experience of playing in games.

They will be looking for an up-tempo Offense in a bid to improve the numbers as they averaged under 20 points per game in each of the last three seasons that culminated in just 14.2 points per game last season. They struggle to run the ball effectively and the Offensive Line is inexperienced this year, while a new Quarter Back will be behind Center looking to improve on a sub 50% completion rate from last year.

It won't be easy against a UCF squad that will be looking to make a good start ahead of their game against Ohio State next week. Storm Johnson is going to get the bulk of the carries in this game and I expect he will have a lot of success behind an Offensive Line that should dominate the line of scrimmage.

Tyler Gabbert should get the call behind Center and the transfer from Missouri should feel comfortable in this game against an Akron team that is less talented in key areas, like the linebacker spot, than they were last season. The Zips also had just 2 interceptions last season and allowed Quarter Backs to complete over 60% of their passing attempts so could have some issues stopping UCF having success whatever they do with their Offense.

Head to Head

This is the first meeting between the schools since 2004 when Akron beat UCF by 5 points on the road.

UCF have lost all three games on the road against Akron, both straight up and against the spread.

Other Interesting Trends

Akron are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog being given 10.5 points or more.

They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against schools outside of their Conference.

UCF have lost their last 4 road games against the spread when set as the favourite.

They are 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games against schools from the MAC.

Prediction

I am not a fan of taking on big spreads in the early part of the season as teams still have some kinks to work out, particularly on Offense. However, I do like the UCF Knights to cover for the following reasons:

First, Akron are learning a new system with a new Head Coach and they just don't have the same level of talent as their opponents and it will be hard for them to stop the UCF Knights scoring points in this one. Playing from behind will not be easy for a new Quarter Back against an experienced Defensive Line and a ball hawking Secondary that had 9 interceptions last season while allowing just 12 passing touchdowns.

Second, the Zips have rarely been dogged by over 20 points, but they are just 1-4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons when they have been.

Third, the Zips have been outscored 6-70 in their last two season openers and might just have some teething problems against a very good team again.