NCAA Football
2012-09-02 - SMU at Baylor
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Sunday, September 2nd, 2012, 6:30PM (11:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Not typically big names these but Baylor have recently lost huge name in Robert Griffin III. The Heismann winner is now in the NFL, and in his place, Nick Florence will take over signal caller duties. It won't be the same.
Baylor went 10-3 last year, winning double digits for the first time since 1980 and also having Griffin land them their first Heismann for the school.
SMU have lost their last 9 meetings with Baylor, but they might have a real weapon in new QB Garrett Gilbert, who transferred in from Texas. Shoulder trouble kept him off the field for much of last season but his highschool numbers are impressive and he should find a lot of success here against Baylor. Despite their fantastic numbers last year, the Baylor Bears gave up 6,350 yards last season, more than ever before! That defence will be tested by Gilbert, and his offence, including FB Zach Line, who is fit again.
On the other side, the SMU Mustangs are pretty decent when defending, as they ranked 2nd in conference USA last year. Griffin isn't around to tear them to shreds, and so I have doubts about the number on this game. Baylor, surely on reputation alone, are 8.5 point favs. I have them at 7, max.
BETTING VERDICT
Baylor are on a 6 game winning streak going back to last season. They won't lose, or at least I don't think they will, but they aren't going to coast this without worry. SMU have not won on the road to start a season in over 25 years, so they are not short on motivation to beat their rivals here.
And again, watch Gilbert when he gets the ball. Special things might happen when the ex-Texas QB gets the ball. Take SMU with the points.
The Pick :
SMU +8.5
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take SMU +8.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
