NFL Football
2012-01-22 - New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Divisional Round
Sunday 22 January 2012 - Kick Off 6:30pm ET
11:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is an intriguing game as Candlestick Park gets the honour of hosting the NFC Championship Game. Many of the fans leaving this venue having seen the San Francisco 49ers (14-3) defeat the New Orleans Saints would have been looking up flights to Wisconsin, but instead they face the hottest team in the NFL.
The New York Giants (11-7) surprised the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last weekend and you could forgive some of the followers of the G-Men to think it is their destiny to face the New England Patriots in a repeat of the SuperBowl in 2007.
It's hard to argue with them right now as the Giants are as healthy on both sides of the ball as they have been all season and are also playing with a swagger. The trip to the West Coast will be really tough, but they have a bit more time with the game scheduled for a late afternoon/evening start and the goal of playing in the big game should be motivation enough.
Eli Manning said at the start of the season that he deserves to be spoken about in the same breath as Tom Brady and the other top QBs in the League and he really has proven that is the case during this season. Manning has cut out the mistakes in his game and also carried the Giants through long periods without an effective running game.
He will face a tough match up against the San Francisco 49ers Defense, but it is one that likes to make plays on the ball and that can lead to big plays, something that Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham could all break in this game. Despite the impressive nature of the 49ers win last week, they still gave up a lot of yards through the air and that could be a problem this week again.
The onus will likely be on Manning to make the plays this week as San Francisco are very much a team that can shut down the running game of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. While the Giants will try to run the ball to keep the Defense honest, I don't imagine them breaking too many big runs.
The other QB in this game is one that has been criticised for his play ever since he was taken Number 1 overall in the Draft of 2005 (yep, above Aaron Rodgers), but there were no jeers last week for Alex Smith who made some great plays in the last 2 minutes to carry his team over the Saints. It was an emotional day for the entire San Francisco team, and this could be a big challenge against a rejuvenated Giants Defense.
With Osi Umenyiora back in the line up, the front 4 New York have are as effective as anyone in the NFL. If they play as they have been over the last 4 weeks, Alex Smith could be running for his life behind an Offensive Line that has failed to offer him enough protection. We all saw what the Baltimore Ravens did to San Francisco on Thanksgiving Day and, while I don't think it will be that bad, I think the Giants can get to the QB.
That means the 49ers are likely to hand the ball off to Frank Gore as often as they can to try and slow down the pass rush and also to keep the Offense in short and manageable situations. The Giants had struggled to stop teams running the ball for much of the year, but healthy defenders has improved them on that front and will make it tougher for Gore to pick up the hard yardage.
It is also true that the Giants Secondary had had a hard time defending the pass all season, but they too have been improving thanks to the pressure generated up front and it could be a tough time for the 49ers to keep the ball moving effectively throughout the contest.
Head to Head
These two teams met here earlier this season with the 49ers coming out with a 27-20 win as the 4 point favourites. They stopped a late Giants drive on the 10 yard line by batting a couple down at the End Zone.
The Giants had won 3 in a row before that and had actually won 5 games against the spread against the 49ers.
San Francisco are 13-3-1 against the spread this season, New York are 10-7-1.
San Francisco are 8-3 against the spread as the favourites, New York are 6-2 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
San Francisco are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They have won their last 9 games against the spread as the home favourite.
New York are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as the road underdog being given between 0.5 and 3 points.
They have won their last 7 games against the spread as the Play Off underdog.
They are 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I really like the New York Giants to win this game outright and make their way to the SuperBowl in Indianapolis for the following reasons:
First, the New York Giants have a great passing game going and I think the San Francisco 49ers can be hurt through the air as New Orleans proved last week. The Giants have too many receivers to cover.
Second, the Giants Defense is playing exceptionally well at the moment and I figure they make it tough on the 49ers, limiting the running game and keeping Alex Smith moving in the pocket while also reducing his time to throw at a rate of knots.
Third, San Francisco played with so much heart last week against New Orleans and it was clearly an emotional victory. I worry if they may have used too much energy in that game and could struggle to match that performance.
Fourth, no one expected the 49ers to win last week against the Saints, but there is a different pressure on a team when they are considered the favourites to win a game. This is a huge change for a young team.
Fifth, a nice statistic shows that teams that win in the Play Offs as the home underdog are just 6-22-1 against the spread in their next game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Francisco 49ers 24-27 New York Giants
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the New York Giants to win @ 2.20
